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Ira:
I have been on both sides of this aisle. At one point,
I was one of the lead money managers for the largest
fund in the world at that time and the resources
available to me were obviously staggering. I got
fundamental news well ahead of literally anyone else
in the world. Here's an example:
The phone would ring and because I had a very large
cocoa futures position, it was one of the counters
from the cocoa pod count teams out in the field. He
was calling me 4 days before the report would be
compiled and generated and the count was going much
worse than anyone could have expected. Or I'd get a
call from a farmer on a farm in the field in Iowa, and
even though Tommy Skilling, 'Mr Weather in Chicago'
said there was no rain, they were getting 2 inches of
rain in that part of Iowa and it wasn't yet
reported...
Last, I worked for the Bureau of Labor Statistics for
a bit and then as a forecasting economist for
President Regean's election team. Watching the numbers
get manipulated was a sobering experience.
99.9999999 pct of the investors or traders in the
world cannot have an edge in the findamentals--unless
its an industry they know well or they have found a
niche not generally covered by others [ as you
mentioned]. Trying to compete with the few that have
meaningful info is futile.
There are more generic fundamentals--some were
mentioned--and they can work if you are diligent and
careful. Another example would be keeping seasonality
in mind when grain or meat trading--not using it
blindly, but using it with your other tools.
But in general, to me, the numbers have become a
guessing game of how the numbers stacked up against
expectations...so you are reacting to the reaction to
the reaction. That's too derivative for me. I'd rather
just trade price.
Tim
--- Ira <mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> There are more fundamental factors to look at than
> any one person would want to know about. One of the
> main problems with fundamentals is the information
> provided by the companies. who is cooking what set
> of books. There are several programs out there that
> allow you to set up the fundamental parameters that
> you want to use as filters and then scan stocks for
> those that meet that criteria.
>
> There are PE rations, Debt to equity ratios, cash
> flow ratios, earnings growth, return on equity and
> on and on. I sampled a couple of these programs and
> found that on many occasions there was pertinent
> data missing so the numbers were not correct.
>
> One other thing of note. You can have two companies
> with exactly the same fundamentals and quality of
> management and one can be trading at X and the other
> at 4X. The one trading at 4X has a list of analysts
> that follow the stock and the other is just doing
> its business and not going to trade shows,
> conferences or wining and dining various firms to
> get their company noticed.
>
> Fundamentals are based upon old information that is
> usually out of date and how many earnings estimates
> are correct. Technical analysis is based upon what
> is happening now and those that are willing to put
> their money where their mouth is. .
> Ira
> www.delta100.com
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: RB
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Saturday, November 10, 2007 11:41 AM
> Subject: [RT] stock fundamentals queston
>
>
>
>
> For any that use stock fundamentals in their
> investing-trading or knows about what fundamenrals
> are the best to look at for stock trading.
> I would like to know what handfull of stock
> fundamental info you look at and scan or screen for,
> to help you decide if the stock may be a good buy
> or something to stay away from over the near term to
> mid-term. The few most of you think are maybe the
> most important.
>
> And I am talking about only funfamental stuff not
> technicals.
>
>
>
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