Re: [RT] weekly analysis

["Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Rising energy prices act as a tax on the economy - all elements of the economy- and it is one we cannot lower by congressional action. The impact will be on lowered earnings and eventually higher unemployment world wide.

Here in the US the real estate correction will hurt all the downstream businesses.

As more of the credit crises comes visible, underlying confidence will deteriorate and a rising market depends on confidence.

Inflation in this country has only been kept low by improved productivity by out sourcing manufacturing to low wage economies. As money supply increases to counteract the credit bubble, inflation must rise, usually with a six month lag. Add to this the continued lack of faith in the Dollar and in holding US debt  and I would say we could be on the verge of a major down turn. And, if the world economy is truly on fire, you can rest assured there will be better places to put money than the US.

Admittedly this is a very pessimistic analysis but the facts are the facts.

Jim White
Pivot Research & Trading Co.
PivotTrader.com

----- Original Message -----

From: BobsKC

To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2007 10:26 AM

Subject: Re: [RT] weekly analysis

At 10:39 AM 11/7/2007, you wrote:

Please forgive my last post - I posted the wrong chart.
My work suggests we are in the period for a weekly pivot on major indexes.11/16 is the Near Impulse forecast for DOW, S&P and Russell.This should be a low pivot and start a year-end rally.
This is what the methodology says yet when I consider all the external influences( the Dollar, Oil, Near East Uncertainty, Credit correction, etc.) I see no basis for bullish behavior.
Jim White
Pivot Research & Trading Co.
PivotTrader.com

What about full employment, rising wages, strong S&P performance, reasonable PE's, a world economy on fire and no other choices for returns exceeding inflation? 

Bob

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