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You fall into the possible category. You are the reason we can
never say never. You are an honorable man who I would trust above
nearly all others. You are the exception and there are always
exceptions. But, my statements remain valid in spite of you.
:))
Bob
At 03:08 PM 3/27/2007 -0700, you wrote:
I fall
into the reasonable category. I retired off of the options floor in
1985. Traded up stairs and then at home. Trading is like a
narcotic for me and very difficult to stop. I had a heart attach
and the doctor said no more trading. Several months later someone I
knew contacted me. He couldn't make a living and asked me to teach
him to trade. I was reluctant to give out the system, but I said
yes. To this day that party can't trade but he does write a
successful news letter and does some teaching. I found that I liked
teaching and have continued. The majority of people that come here
do so based upon a referral from someone else who has been here.
Are all the students that leave here successful? No. In any
field of endeavor, is everyone who tries it successful and the answer to
that is still no. The statistics seem to indicate that 90% of
new ventures fail. My success rate has been just the reverse of
that. So there are some of us who do teach for reasons other
than those given in your post. I still follow the markets, I
still teach a little and I post a blog on a daily basis. There is
some vacation time in there also.
Ira
www.thetradersguide.net
From: BobsKC
- To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 1:48 PM
- Subject: Re: [RT] For newbies
- It's possible there could be a legitimate reason but it is also possible that someone could throw darts at a stock list and make a huge amount of money. ie: *Anything* is *possible* but the question is, how likely is it? We must all make decisions based on the probability of things and not on the possibility of things. As an advocate of methodologies, you surely would agree with this statement.
- Bob
- At 12:48 PM 3/27/2007 -0700, you wrote:
- Bob,
- Generally I agree with the content of your post, especially concerning those methods that are actively sold through mass advertising or direct mail. However, there may be legitimate reasons for making a new technology available to others. Have you ever heard of The Prediction Company? After developing a superior trading methodology based on nonlinear dynamic modeling, this group of scientists sold it to a major bank. This group had divergent interest and wished to pursue other activities. (Read "The Predictors" by Thomas Bass.) Was this a legitimate reason to sell?
- Let's take another example. Active traders know that it is a time consuming and often stressful occupation. Suppose an individual developed an outstanding methodology and traded it successfully for a number of years before being advised, for health reasons, to reduce his activity. Would the desire to extract a stream of income from the methodology without the day-to- day trading activity be a legitimate reason to sell it to others?
- And there is the issue of scale. Suppose the same individual above traded a six figure portfolio successfully for a number of years using a break-through technology. Then he was offered an opportunity to apply it to a hundred million dollar fund. Would it be a legitimate reason to sell?
- So, perhaps you can agree that there may be legitimate reasons for making new technology available to others. As always a buyer should exercise due diligence but it is the value of the product which should be questioned - not the motivation of the seller.
-
- Best Regards,
-
- Jim
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: BobsKC
- To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 11:18 AM
- Subject: [RT] For newbies
- Some time ago, I changed the rules on our list to allow advertising as long
- as it didn't get out of hand and there was no pumping. I am pleased to say
- that it has not gotten out of hand and has been minimal and
- professional. Still, it is only a matter of common sense to think about
- trading systems and stock picking systems. If the person promoting their
- product really had a holy grail of trading, why would they need to sell it
- to you? Put another way, if you have the combination to the safe, why sell
- it to someone else? Just go in there and get all the gold you want, when
- you want. Selling the combination only puts people in your line of access
- and redefines how much gold there is to split since nothing is in endless
- supply.
- Having said that, I do not doubt the validity of those who are trying to
- sell trading systems. I only doubt the need to do it if their systems work
- so well. You should ask yourself these same questions before you begin
- writing checks.
- Hope everyone has a great trading week.
- Bob
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