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Thanks, Earl.
Best
Georg
At 06:57 PM 09/15/2006, you wrote:
Can't make
out the contract month and time interval on your chart but I can't match
it with anything I have here, especially the relatively deep retracement
at point #4. I wonder if it might be a continuous which would introduce a
rollover price issue.
I'm attaching a chart of October CL daily with WW
marked off. #3 is a nice 162% retracement of 1-2 providing strong down
thrust, however #4 did not even reach a 38% retrace of 2-3 and that's
where I think the problem lies with October CL. I would look for 50%
minimum retrace which also violates #1. I scanned November and December
and they appear to exhibit similar small #4 retracements.
I think what we've seen that not all
descending/ascending triangles qualify. It seems that lots of volatility
is needed in the swings which create the triangle and it needs to be
rising/falling quite steeply.
Earl
- -----Original Message-----
- From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[
mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Georg Mayer
- Sent: Thursday, September 14, 2006 11:45 PM
- To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Subject: [RT] Another failed WolfeWave in WTLC
- Good Morning:
- I'm new here and hence first want to thank Bob for inviting me to
RTs. Also thanks to Kate and Earl - apparently the WolfeWaves-doyen here
- for their recent help and comments on my questions and charts. As you
are well aware, I am not an expert in the matter at all, but have just
started studying it in order to verify or to soon discard this approach.
Here's another example favouring the latter:
- More comments and ideas are much appreciated.
- Nice day
- Georg
- From: EAdamy
- Sent: Thursday, September 14, 2006 9:30 AM
- Subject: RE: Fw: [RT] Wolfe Waves
- My concerns regarding this particular WW
pattern (as shown in Georg's chart) are two-fold and have been expressed
previously. First, the #5 failed to follow-through on the first decline
after rising above the upper TL following #4. Second, triangle patterns
seem to have a high right of failure when price gets too close to the
apex of the triangle. I think it began getting too close when the first
decline above the upper TL failed to follow-through.
-
- I am not familiar with the 1/4 steps and the
boxes don't seem to be marked into quarters.
-
- Earl
- At 06:53 PM 09/13/2006, you wrote:
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: EAdamy
- To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Sent: Wednesday, September 13, 2006 8:42 AM
- Subject: RE: [RT] Wolfe Waves
- As I suspected, point #3 on the ES was too
shallow for the trendline at point #5 to offer any resistance. #3 on the
NQ gave us a steeper line which offered a slight retracement at point #5,
however point #4 failed to pull back into the body to a point below #1.
Probably need a 162% retracement of #1-#2 at point #3 and a 50%
retracement of #2-#3 at point #4. The wide swings required should be an
indication of a blow-off in progress.
- Finally, my golden rule is to never, ever trade against the tape when
the AD volume ratio ((AD up - AD down) / (AD up + AD down)) on both NYSE
and NASDAQ are running above 0.50.
- Earl
-
- -----Original Message-----
- From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [
mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of EAdamy
- Sent: Tuesday, September 12, 2006 9:12 AM
- To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Subject: RE: [RT] Wolfe Waves
- This is a tale of two Wolfe Waves. All charts
are 15 minute. Upper left is ES ... note the slope of the upper line
which is so shallow that it fails to catch the really significant
reversal retracements at 162% and 200% ... it will clearly have to exceed
the upper line by quite a bit to reach the 1320 potential reversal area.
Lower left is NQ ... note the slope of the upper line which is steep
enough to catch the significant reversal retracement area around 1624
without a huge run above the upper line. On the right we have AD volume
oscillators which are running overwhelmingly bullish. In my view, the NQ
WW is far more likely to work.
- Conclusion ... I believe it is important to
have a fairly steep upper line in order for the WW to hit the extreme
retracement zone required to offer a low-risk reversal. Let's see how it
works out.
- Earl
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