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RE: [RT] Wolfe Wave



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Kate,
 
The WW is a pattern I use and trade.
 
I believe I missed the bullish setup which appears to me to have been a very clean setup.
 
The bearish one is one I tracked and is, in my opinion, a failed WW. Following point #4, price spiked up through the upper line to complete point #5. Unfortunately, it failed to break down significantly. The minor break was followed to a higher high which breaks the WW symmetry. Further, I have found that wedge patterns which persist into the apex, as this one has, are unlikely to perform as expected.
 
To summarize: #1 (bullish) looks valid and has hit its objective. #2 (bearish) looks like a dud. All patterns will fail now and then. The WW patter is best traded with the objective of catching the #5 extension as it completes which allows for a low-risk stop at the #5 high.
 
Earl
 
-----Original Message-----
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of ketayun
Sent: Monday, September 11, 2006 6:07 AM
To: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx Com
Subject: [RT] Wolfe Wave

Hi Earl,
 
I am forwarding this on behalf of another trader, and would appreciate your input since you have demonstrated before how this works.
 
Thank you very much,
 
Kate

 
Good Morning:
I've just read some pages of Bill Wolfe, and hence still not familiar with the Wolfe Waves. I am not even sure whether his pattern applies only to rising and descending wedges. However, as I understood so far the bullish Wolfe Wave-structure would point to a HIGH @ 1.314 in the SPX around September 22, the bearish one to a LOW around September 11 @ 1.244,8 ... hmm ... compared to what I had in mind both projections aren't very likely ... but I have no clear idea about reasonable time frames for projection nor how reliable these "Estimated Time & Price at Arrival"-points are. Should one look at trading days or calendar days, daily close-values or OHLC. Is there any experience and critical opinion on this matter out there? Does the approach make sense at all?
Thanks
Georg

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