Re: [RT] Oil

["Bob" <BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx>]

I agree on 1060 and also noticed the reaction 
between the trade deficit and bond yields.  And again, this may be just a 
pause before the bottom falls out but it's always interesting when a market 
holds up in the face of such news.
 
Yes, oil is oil, but there has been, to this 
point, an obvious negative correlation between the stock market and oil.  
And it wasn't a talking head from CNBC I was referring to but a fellow trader 
making observations about something I am not familiar with......hence my 
post.
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  EarlA 
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Saturday, August 14, 2004 8:17 
  AM
  Subject: Re: [RT] Oil
  
  While the 1065+- area has held support, I find it noteworthy that 
  equities have barely gotten a bid for the entire decline. Failure to get a 
  strong bid at current support suggests to me that the decline is probably not 
  over.
   
  The biggest anomaly in Friday's action was fact that trade deficit 
  soared yet bond yields declined. The underlying trends in the deficit 
  suggested smaller currency inflows to US. Overall, it would seem that 
  increased credit demand to finance the trade deficit and decreased inflows 
  would lead to higher bond yields.
   
  Oil is oil and I think few (especially not on CNBC) know where oil is 
  going. For now it is in an up-trend, OPEC candidly admitted (then retracted) 
  that they had little/no excess capacity remaining and the global economies, 
  especially Asia, have yet to show significant signs of slowing which suggests 
  continued high demand. Of particular interest is the fact that the Oil/Gas 
  ratio has gotten so far away from it's usual 6:1 range.
   
  Earl
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  >
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    <DIV 
    >From: 
    Bob 
    To: <A 
    title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="">realtraders 
    Sent: Saturday, August 14, 2004 5:06 
    AM
    Subject: [RT] Oil
    
    Was anyone else surprised at how the indexes 
    held up this week in the face of Oil continuing its relentless rise and 
    some not so inspiring earnings reports?  Maybe it's just 
    a pause before the indexes head lower but I thought it was rather odd.  
    
     
    I also heard a trader on CNBC state that he 
    believes oil is within a week or so of a top, and the reason he cited was 
    the current relationship/spread between the front month and outlying 
    months.  This is beyond my area of expertise so I was hoping some 
    others would share their 
    views.







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