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Yes, I'd love to hear that too.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Norman
Winski
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 7:19
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P
update - $18 crude oil
Mark,
Since you brought it up,
perhaps you could elaborate on why you think Bush averting a 1930s style
depression coming off a major generational bubble collapse represents a
disastrous track record?
Thanks,
Norman
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 7:29
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P
update - $18 crude oil
IMHO only in
conjunction with a severe worldwide recession or depression will we see that
$18 price.
But given
Japan's and Bush's disasterous economic track record, it's a
possibility.
Wild card is
China...will they make dumb policy decisions ?
Russia has
already proven it's stupidity.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: mr.ira
[mailto:mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004
2:52 PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re:
[RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update
We saw it several years back and we could see
it again. It is $3 oil that we will never see again in our life
time. One can thank Henry Kissinger for that one.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark
Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004
10:47 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and
S&P update
Bear market $18 crude oil....will we see that in our
lifetime ?> -----Original Message-----> From:
topos8 [mailto:topos8@xxxxxxx]> Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004
10:32 AM> To: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update>>> ---
In <A
href="">gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"topos8" <topos8@x...>
wrote:> I last updated my bond and stock forecasts in GG# 26884,
May 13, 2004.>> At the moment my square of 9 calculations
say that the S&P's will> make a low at 1055 this week and
then rally to or above the 1200> level.>> The
market has completed the three peaks part of a George Lindsay>
style, "three peaks and a domed house formation" (March, April
and> June are the three peaks in the S&P) and the current
break is the> separating decline. Normally the subsequent rally
that traces out the> domed house part of the pattern ends the
bull market and also ends> what Lindsay called a basic advance.
However, my calculations using> Linday's guidelines say that the
current basic advance began in March> 2003 and is likely to last
into the second half of 2005. Even an 8> month rally (the typical
duration of a "domed house" rally) from a> low now would not last
into the second half of 2005.>> I think this conflict will
be resolved in one of two ways.>> The first way is the
pattern I have been expecting for the past year.> In this pattern
the March top is iself only the first peak of a> larger three
peaks formation that lasts through the end of 2004; in> this
scenario the second peak still lies ahead (early November 2004>
and about 1250 in the S&P?) and the third peak (January 2005 ?)
will> be lower than the second. After the third peak in January
2005 the> separating decline will carry to 1075 in the S&P
and last 1-3 months> from the third peak. After the 1075 low we
then will see a domed> house rally that carries the S&P up to
1350 in the fall of 2005.>> The second resolution is
becoming more and more likely given the> degree of pessism I
currently think I see in public investment> perceptions. In this
scenario, the market rallies to 1350 in April-> June of 2005,
then goes into a 6 month trading range (something like>
March-September 2000) and then begins a new bear market.>>
In either scenario I expect the next bear market to extend
through> most of 2006 and carry the S&P from about 1350 down
into the 850-950> range.>> In my May 13 message I
said that the bonds were about to begin a> rally from the 103
level in the futures that would last 4-8 weeks and> carry the
market up no more that 6 points. In the event we have seen> a
rally that has carried the market up nearly nine points over a
12> week span.>> I now think that this bond rally
is nearly over. I can see the bonds> moving up a bit more into
the 112-00 to 112-16 range(vs. a high of> 111-26 yesterday) but
first the market will probably drop to 109-08.> The 10 year notes
reached the 113-10 level yesterday and have the> potential to get
to get up to 114-16. First they will probably drop> to 111-16.
The next big downleg will probably carry the bonds down> into the
100-102 range and that may well be the bear market low for>
bonds. The notes will drop to 104 but I think lower lows for
the> notes will evntually be seen as the yield curve continues to
flatten> substantially.>> I thought crude would top
in the $41-42 range in May but all we got> was a break to $35. I
now think that the bull market high will occur> in the $45-47
range and that the next bear market will carry down to>
$18.>> Carl> --- End forwarded message
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