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We saw it several years back and we could see it
again. It is $3 oil that we will never see again in our life time.
One can thank Henry Kissinger for that one.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark Simms
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 10:47
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P
update
Bear market $18 crude oil....will we see that in our
lifetime ?> -----Original Message-----> From: topos8
[mailto:topos8@xxxxxxx]> Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 10:32
AM> To: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update>>> --- In <A
href="">gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"topos8" <topos8@x...> wrote:> I
last updated my bond and stock forecasts in GG# 26884, May 13,
2004.>> At the moment my square of 9 calculations say that the
S&P's will> make a low at 1055 this week and then rally to or above
the 1200> level.>> The market has completed the three
peaks part of a George Lindsay> style, "three peaks and a domed house
formation" (March, April and> June are the three peaks in the S&P)
and the current break is the> separating decline. Normally the
subsequent rally that traces out the> domed house part of the pattern
ends the bull market and also ends> what Lindsay called a basic
advance. However, my calculations using> Linday's guidelines say that
the current basic advance began in March> 2003 and is likely to last
into the second half of 2005. Even an 8> month rally (the typical
duration of a "domed house" rally) from a> low now would not last into
the second half of 2005.>> I think this conflict will be
resolved in one of two ways.>> The first way is the pattern I
have been expecting for the past year.> In this pattern the March top
is iself only the first peak of a> larger three peaks formation that
lasts through the end of 2004; in> this scenario the second peak still
lies ahead (early November 2004> and about 1250 in the S&P?) and
the third peak (January 2005 ?) will> be lower than the second. After
the third peak in January 2005 the> separating decline will carry to
1075 in the S&P and last 1-3 months> from the third peak. After the
1075 low we then will see a domed> house rally that carries the S&P
up to 1350 in the fall of 2005.>> The second resolution is
becoming more and more likely given the> degree of pessism I currently
think I see in public investment> perceptions. In this scenario, the
market rallies to 1350 in April-> June of 2005, then goes into a 6
month trading range (something like> March-September 2000) and then
begins a new bear market.>> In either scenario I expect the next
bear market to extend through> most of 2006 and carry the S&P from
about 1350 down into the 850-950> range.>> In my May 13
message I said that the bonds were about to begin a> rally from the 103
level in the futures that would last 4-8 weeks and> carry the market up
no more that 6 points. In the event we have seen> a rally that has
carried the market up nearly nine points over a 12> week
span.>> I now think that this bond rally is nearly over. I can
see the bonds> moving up a bit more into the 112-00 to 112-16 range(vs.
a high of> 111-26 yesterday) but first the market will probably drop to
109-08.> The 10 year notes reached the 113-10 level yesterday and have
the> potential to get to get up to 114-16. First they will probably
drop> to 111-16. The next big downleg will probably carry the bonds
down> into the 100-102 range and that may well be the bear market low
for> bonds. The notes will drop to 104 but I think lower lows for
the> notes will evntually be seen as the yield curve continues to
flatten> substantially.>> I thought crude would top in
the $41-42 range in May but all we got> was a break to $35. I now think
that the bull market high will occur> in the $45-47 range and that the
next bear market will carry down to> $18.>> Carl>
--- End forwarded message
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