|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk ; <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Saturday, July 24, 2004 10:49 AM
Subject: 7/24 report
<A
name=OLE_LINK4><A
name=OLE_LINK1><SPAN
><SPAN
>Technical market report for July 24,
2004
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The good news
is:
<LI class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Most of the broad based indices are at major
support levels.
<LI class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>End of month seasonality strength should help
next week.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The NDX, Russell 2000 (R2K), Dow Jones
Industrial average, S&P 500 (SPX), Russell 1000 and Wilshire 5000 to name a
few are all within 1% of their May lows.
The Nasdaq composite is 1.4% below its May low.<SPAN
> If there is anything to support –
resistance levels there should be, at least, some slowing of the decline next
week.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The chart below is typical of many this week in
that it shows an indicator near its low of the past year.<SPAN
> In this case the indicator is momentum
of a running total of NASDAQ advancing volume – declining volume (an AD line of
volume).
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75
coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t"
path="m@x@5l@x@11@x@11@x@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:stroke
joinstyle="miter"><v:f
eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"><v:f
eqn="sum 0 0 @1"><v:f
eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"><v:f
eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"><v:f
eqn="prod @6 1 2"><v:f
eqn="sum @8 21600 0"><v:f
eqn="sum @10 21600 0"><v:path o:extrusionok="f"
gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"><o:lock v:ext="edit"
aspectratio="t"><v:shape id=_x0000_i1025
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="OTC-UD-OBV-MoM"><IMG
src="gif00197.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>I have often said that it is imprudent to bet
against the direction of the summation indices when they are all going in the
same direction. The chart below
shows summation indices constructed from NASDAQ advances & declines, up/down
volume and new highs & new lows.
They are all heading downward as are the similar indices constructed from
NYSE data. Summation indices are an
accumulation of oscillator values.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shape id=_x0000_i1026
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="OTC-All-Si's"><IMG
src="gif00198.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Seasonally the last week in July is pretty
good. Unlike most seasonally strong
periods, the blue chips have been significantly stronger than the secondaries as
the tables below show.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Last<SPAN
> 5 days of JulyThe number
following the daily return represents the day of the week;1 =
Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.The number following the year is its
position in the presidential cycle<SPAN
> R2K<SPAN
>
Day5
Day4
Day3
Day2
Day1
Totals1989-1<SPAN
> -0.12% 2<SPAN
> 0.35% 3<SPAN
> 0.48% 4<SPAN
> -0.06% 5<SPAN
> 0.22% 1<SPAN
> 0.87%<BR
clear=all>1990-2<SPAN
> 0.28%
3 0.24% 4<SPAN
> -0.55% 5<SPAN
> -0.75% 1<SPAN
> -0.27% 2<SPAN
> -1.06%<BR
clear=all>1991-3<SPAN
> 0.23%
4 0.06% 5<SPAN
> 0.00% 1<SPAN
> 0.53% 2<SPAN
> 0.71% 3<SPAN
> 1.53%<BR
clear=all>1992-4<SPAN
> 0.07%
1 0.93% 2<SPAN
> 0.78% 3<SPAN
> 0.44% 4<SPAN
> 0.47% 5<SPAN
> 2.68%<BR
clear=all>1993-1<SPAN
> 0.56%
1 -0.20% 2<SPAN
> 0.36% 3<SPAN
> 0.22% 4<SPAN
> -0.03% 5<SPAN
> 0.92%<BR
clear=all>1994-2<SPAN
> 0.01%
1 -0.16% 2<SPAN
> -0.39% 3<SPAN
> -0.12% 4<SPAN
> 0.96% 5<SPAN
> 0.31%<BR
clear=all>1995-3<SPAN
> 0.45%
2 0.48% 3<SPAN
> 0.89% 4<SPAN
> 0.16% 5<SPAN
> 0.16% 1<SPAN
> 2.14%<BR
clear=all>1996-4<SPAN
> 1.23%
4 0.96% 5<SPAN
> -0.46% 1<SPAN
> 0.13% 2<SPAN
> 0.78% 3<SPAN
> 2.65%<BR
clear=all>1997-1<SPAN
> 0.09%
5 0.03% 1<SPAN
> 0.29% 2<SPAN
> 0.87% 3<SPAN
> 0.25% 4<SPAN
> 1.53%<BR
clear=all>1998-2
-1.24% 1 -1.30% 2<SPAN
> -0.32% 3<SPAN
> 0.78% 4<SPAN
> -2.27% 5<SPAN
> -4.34%<BR
clear=all>1999-3
-1.23% 1 0.82% 2<SPAN
> 0.03% 3<SPAN
> -1.13% 4<SPAN
> 0.72% 5<SPAN
> -0.79%<BR
clear=all>2000-4<SPAN
> 0.02%
2 -0.10% 3<SPAN
> -2.37% 4<SPAN
> -2.27% 5<SPAN
> 2.12% 1<SPAN
> -2.61%<BR
clear=all>2001-1<SPAN
> 0.58%
3 1.69% 4<SPAN
> -0.01% 5<SPAN
> -0.06% 1<SPAN
> 0.01% 2<SPAN
> 2.21%<BR
clear=all>2002-2
-0.12% 4 1.10% 5<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 4.85% 1<SPAN
> 0.02% 2<SPAN
> -2.12% 3<SPAN
> 3.74%<BR
clear=all>2003-3<SPAN
> 0.78%
5 1.06% 1<SPAN
> -0.05% 2<SPAN
> -0.17% 3<SPAN
> 0.68% 4<SPAN
> 2.30%<BR
clear=all>Averages
0.11%
0.40%
0.25%
-0.09%
0.16%
0.80%<SPAN
> Winners<SPAN
> 73%<SPAN
> 73%<SPAN
> 50%<SPAN
> 53%<SPAN
> 73%<SPAN
>
73%SPX <SPAN
> Day5<SPAN
> Day4<SPAN
> Day3<SPAN
> Day2<SPAN
> Day1<SPAN
> Totals<BR
clear=all>1989-1<SPAN
> 0.06%
2 1.25% 3<SPAN
> 1.17% 4<SPAN
> 0.05% 5<SPAN
> 1.15% 1<SPAN
> 3.67%<BR
clear=all>1990-2<SPAN
> 0.37%
3 -0.33% 4<SPAN
> -0.69% 5<SPAN
> 0.60% 1<SPAN
> 0.17% 2<SPAN
> 0.11%<BR
clear=all>1991-3<SPAN
> 0.61%
4 -0.01% 5<SPAN
> 0.58% 1<SPAN
> 0.92% 2<SPAN
> 0.29% 3<SPAN
> 2.40%<BR
clear=all>1992-4
-0.01% 1 1.45% 2<SPAN
> 1.13% 3<SPAN
> 0.40% 4<SPAN
> 0.07% 5<SPAN
> 3.04%<BR
clear=all>1993-1<SPAN
> 0.45%
1 -0.19% 2<SPAN
> -0.23% 3<SPAN
> 0.68% 4<SPAN
> -0.47% 5<SPAN
> 0.23%<BR
clear=all>1994-2<SPAN
> 0.25%
1 -0.20% 2<SPAN
> -0.17% 3<SPAN
> 0.37% 4<SPAN
> 0.88% 5<SPAN
> 1.14%<BR
clear=all>1995-3<SPAN
> 0.80%
2 0.09% 3<SPAN
> 0.64% 4<SPAN
> -0.41% 5<SPAN
> -0.15% 1<SPAN
> 0.98%<BR
clear=all>1996-4<SPAN
> 0.72%
4 0.75% 5<SPAN
> -0.78% 1<SPAN
> 0.69% 2<SPAN
> 0.74% 3<SPAN
> 2.11%<BR
clear=all>1997-1
-0.16% 5 -0.25% 1<SPAN
> 0.62% 2<SPAN
> 1.06% 3<SPAN
> 0.21% 4<SPAN
> 1.49%<BR
clear=all>1998-2<SPAN
> 0.57%
1 -1.48% 2<SPAN
> -0.45% 3<SPAN
> 1.58% 4<SPAN
> -1.95% 5 <SPAN
> -1.74%<BR
clear=all>1999-3
-0.68% 1 1.12% 2<SPAN
> 0.19% 3<SPAN
> -1.78% 4<SPAN
> -0.92% 5<SPAN
> -2.07%<BR
clear=all>2000-4<SPAN
> 0.70%
2 -1.50% 3<SPAN
> -0.19% 4<SPAN
> -2.05% 5<SPAN
> 0.77% 1<SPAN
> -2.27%<BR
clear=all>2001-1<SPAN
> 1.61%
3 1.04% 4<SPAN
> 0.24% 5<SPAN
> -0.11% 1<SPAN
> 0.56% 2<SPAN
> 3.34%<BR
clear=all>2002-2
-0.56% 4 1.69% 5<SPAN
> 5.41% 1<SPAN
> 0.42% 2<SPAN
> 0.98% 3<SPAN
> 7.94%<BR
clear=all>2003-3<SPAN
> 1.74%
5 -0.22% 1<SPAN
> -0.73% 2<SPAN
> -0.18% 3<SPAN
> 0.29% 4<SPAN
> 0.90%<BR
clear=all>Averages
0.43%
0.22%
0.45%
0.15%
0.17%
1.42%<SPAN
> Winners<SPAN
> 73%<SPAN
> 47%<SPAN
> 53%<SPAN
> 67%<SPAN
> 73%<SPAN
>
80%
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>I am a little uncomfortable making a positive
forecast with the majority of the indicators <SPAN
> heading downward, but you could not find
a better case for a “bounce”. By
any measure the market is oversold as we enter a seasonally strong period.<BR
clear=all>I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday July
30 than they were on Friday July 23.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>This report is free to anyone who wants it, so
please tell your friends.They can sign up
at:http://www.guaranteed-profits.comIf it is not for you, reply with
REMOVE in the subject line.Thank you,Mike Burk
W10/L14/T5
---Outgoing mail is
certified Virus Free.Checked by AVG anti-virus system (<A
href="">http://www.grisoft.com).Version: 6.0.726 /
Virus Database: 481 - Release Date: 7/22/2004
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
Yahoo! Groups Links
To visit your group on the web, go to:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Attachment:
Description: ""
Attachment:
Description: ""
|