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----- Original Message ----- From: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx href="">Mike Burk ; <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx href="">Mike Burk To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx href="">Mike Burk Sent: Saturday, July 24, 2004 10:49 AM Subject: 7/24 report <A name=OLE_LINK4><A name=OLE_LINK1><SPAN ><SPAN >Technical market report for July 24, 2004 <SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN >The good news is: <LI class=MsoNormal ><SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN >Most of the broad based indices are at major support levels. <LI class=MsoNormal ><SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN >End of month seasonality strength should help next week. <SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN > <SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN >The NDX, Russell 2000 (R2K), Dow Jones Industrial average, S&P 500 (SPX), Russell 1000 and Wilshire 5000 to name a few are all within 1% of their May lows. The Nasdaq composite is 1.4% below its May low.<SPAN > If there is anything to support – resistance levels there should be, at least, some slowing of the decline next week. <SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN >The chart below is typical of many this week in that it shows an indicator near its low of the past year.<SPAN > In this case the indicator is momentum of a running total of NASDAQ advancing volume – declining volume (an AD line of volume). <SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN ><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75 coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t" path="m@x@5l@x@11@x@11@x@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:stroke joinstyle="miter"><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"><o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="t"><v:shape id=_x0000_i1025 type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata src="" o:title="OTC-UD-OBV-MoM"><IMG src="gif00197.gif"> <SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN >I have often said that it is imprudent to bet against the direction of the summation indices when they are all going in the same direction. The chart below shows summation indices constructed from NASDAQ advances & declines, up/down volume and new highs & new lows. They are all heading downward as are the similar indices constructed from NYSE data. Summation indices are an accumulation of oscillator values. <SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN ><v:shape id=_x0000_i1026 type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata src="" o:title="OTC-All-Si's"><IMG src="gif00198.gif"> <SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN >Seasonally the last week in July is pretty good. Unlike most seasonally strong periods, the blue chips have been significantly stronger than the secondaries as the tables below show. <SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN >Last<SPAN > 5 days of JulyThe number following the daily return represents the day of the week;1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.The number following the year is its position in the presidential cycle<SPAN > R2K<SPAN > Day5 Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1 Totals1989-1<SPAN > -0.12% 2<SPAN > 0.35% 3<SPAN > 0.48% 4<SPAN > -0.06% 5<SPAN > 0.22% 1<SPAN > 0.87%<BR clear=all>1990-2<SPAN > 0.28% 3 0.24% 4<SPAN > -0.55% 5<SPAN > -0.75% 1<SPAN > -0.27% 2<SPAN > -1.06%<BR clear=all>1991-3<SPAN > 0.23% 4 0.06% 5<SPAN > 0.00% 1<SPAN > 0.53% 2<SPAN > 0.71% 3<SPAN > 1.53%<BR clear=all>1992-4<SPAN > 0.07% 1 0.93% 2<SPAN > 0.78% 3<SPAN > 0.44% 4<SPAN > 0.47% 5<SPAN > 2.68%<BR clear=all>1993-1<SPAN > 0.56% 1 -0.20% 2<SPAN > 0.36% 3<SPAN > 0.22% 4<SPAN > -0.03% 5<SPAN > 0.92%<BR clear=all>1994-2<SPAN > 0.01% 1 -0.16% 2<SPAN > -0.39% 3<SPAN > -0.12% 4<SPAN > 0.96% 5<SPAN > 0.31%<BR clear=all>1995-3<SPAN > 0.45% 2 0.48% 3<SPAN > 0.89% 4<SPAN > 0.16% 5<SPAN > 0.16% 1<SPAN > 2.14%<BR clear=all>1996-4<SPAN > 1.23% 4 0.96% 5<SPAN > -0.46% 1<SPAN > 0.13% 2<SPAN > 0.78% 3<SPAN > 2.65%<BR clear=all>1997-1<SPAN > 0.09% 5 0.03% 1<SPAN > 0.29% 2<SPAN > 0.87% 3<SPAN > 0.25% 4<SPAN > 1.53%<BR clear=all>1998-2 -1.24% 1 -1.30% 2<SPAN > -0.32% 3<SPAN > 0.78% 4<SPAN > -2.27% 5<SPAN > -4.34%<BR clear=all>1999-3 -1.23% 1 0.82% 2<SPAN > 0.03% 3<SPAN > -1.13% 4<SPAN > 0.72% 5<SPAN > -0.79%<BR clear=all>2000-4<SPAN > 0.02% 2 -0.10% 3<SPAN > -2.37% 4<SPAN > -2.27% 5<SPAN > 2.12% 1<SPAN > -2.61%<BR clear=all>2001-1<SPAN > 0.58% 3 1.69% 4<SPAN > -0.01% 5<SPAN > -0.06% 1<SPAN > 0.01% 2<SPAN > 2.21%<BR clear=all>2002-2 -0.12% 4 1.10% 5<SPAN > <SPAN > 4.85% 1<SPAN > 0.02% 2<SPAN > -2.12% 3<SPAN > 3.74%<BR clear=all>2003-3<SPAN > 0.78% 5 1.06% 1<SPAN > -0.05% 2<SPAN > -0.17% 3<SPAN > 0.68% 4<SPAN > 2.30%<BR clear=all>Averages 0.11% 0.40% 0.25% -0.09% 0.16% 0.80%<SPAN > Winners<SPAN > 73%<SPAN > 73%<SPAN > 50%<SPAN > 53%<SPAN > 73%<SPAN > 73%SPX <SPAN > Day5<SPAN > Day4<SPAN > Day3<SPAN > Day2<SPAN > Day1<SPAN > Totals<BR clear=all>1989-1<SPAN > 0.06% 2 1.25% 3<SPAN > 1.17% 4<SPAN > 0.05% 5<SPAN > 1.15% 1<SPAN > 3.67%<BR clear=all>1990-2<SPAN > 0.37% 3 -0.33% 4<SPAN > -0.69% 5<SPAN > 0.60% 1<SPAN > 0.17% 2<SPAN > 0.11%<BR clear=all>1991-3<SPAN > 0.61% 4 -0.01% 5<SPAN > 0.58% 1<SPAN > 0.92% 2<SPAN > 0.29% 3<SPAN > 2.40%<BR clear=all>1992-4 -0.01% 1 1.45% 2<SPAN > 1.13% 3<SPAN > 0.40% 4<SPAN > 0.07% 5<SPAN > 3.04%<BR clear=all>1993-1<SPAN > 0.45% 1 -0.19% 2<SPAN > -0.23% 3<SPAN > 0.68% 4<SPAN > -0.47% 5<SPAN > 0.23%<BR clear=all>1994-2<SPAN > 0.25% 1 -0.20% 2<SPAN > -0.17% 3<SPAN > 0.37% 4<SPAN > 0.88% 5<SPAN > 1.14%<BR clear=all>1995-3<SPAN > 0.80% 2 0.09% 3<SPAN > 0.64% 4<SPAN > -0.41% 5<SPAN > -0.15% 1<SPAN > 0.98%<BR clear=all>1996-4<SPAN > 0.72% 4 0.75% 5<SPAN > -0.78% 1<SPAN > 0.69% 2<SPAN > 0.74% 3<SPAN > 2.11%<BR clear=all>1997-1 -0.16% 5 -0.25% 1<SPAN > 0.62% 2<SPAN > 1.06% 3<SPAN > 0.21% 4<SPAN > 1.49%<BR clear=all>1998-2<SPAN > 0.57% 1 -1.48% 2<SPAN > -0.45% 3<SPAN > 1.58% 4<SPAN > -1.95% 5 <SPAN > -1.74%<BR clear=all>1999-3 -0.68% 1 1.12% 2<SPAN > 0.19% 3<SPAN > -1.78% 4<SPAN > -0.92% 5<SPAN > -2.07%<BR clear=all>2000-4<SPAN > 0.70% 2 -1.50% 3<SPAN > -0.19% 4<SPAN > -2.05% 5<SPAN > 0.77% 1<SPAN > -2.27%<BR clear=all>2001-1<SPAN > 1.61% 3 1.04% 4<SPAN > 0.24% 5<SPAN > -0.11% 1<SPAN > 0.56% 2<SPAN > 3.34%<BR clear=all>2002-2 -0.56% 4 1.69% 5<SPAN > 5.41% 1<SPAN > 0.42% 2<SPAN > 0.98% 3<SPAN > 7.94%<BR clear=all>2003-3<SPAN > 1.74% 5 -0.22% 1<SPAN > -0.73% 2<SPAN > -0.18% 3<SPAN > 0.29% 4<SPAN > 0.90%<BR clear=all>Averages 0.43% 0.22% 0.45% 0.15% 0.17% 1.42%<SPAN > Winners<SPAN > 73%<SPAN > 47%<SPAN > 53%<SPAN > 67%<SPAN > 73%<SPAN > 80% <SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN >I am a little uncomfortable making a positive forecast with the majority of the indicators <SPAN > heading downward, but you could not find a better case for a “bounce”. By any measure the market is oversold as we enter a seasonally strong period.<BR clear=all>I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday July 30 than they were on Friday July 23. <SPAN ><SPAN ><SPAN >This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.They can sign up at:http://www.guaranteed-profits.comIf it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.Thank you,Mike Burk W10/L14/T5 ---Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.Checked by AVG anti-virus system (<A href="">http://www.grisoft.com).Version: 6.0.726 / Virus Database: 481 - Release Date: 7/22/2004 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ADVERTISEMENT Yahoo! Groups Links To visit your group on the web, go to:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/ To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
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