Re: Re[2]: [RT] The Market environment

["EarlA" <earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Forgot the weekly SPX chart.
 
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  EarlA 
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Sunday, December 07, 2003 10:02 
  PM
  Subject: Re: Re[2]: [RT] The Market 
  environment
  
  I look for a confluence in my work across a variety of indicators. Recent 
  action in the COT has shown a commercial reluctance to build heavy short 
  positions on each of the previous rallies. I was expecting a substantial 
  increase in commercial shorts would accompany this last high, but commercial 
  positions are unchanged.
   
  SPX has run to within 4 handles of a long standing price objective at 
  1078 yet it still seems reluctant to sell off hard. I also have a big 
  confluence of targets at 1086-89. As shown in the chart I posted last week, 
  since June the SPX has repeatedly declined sharply and then retraced 127% of 
  the decline. I'm getting a sense we may get another repeat ... perhaps a 
  double bottom in the 1031 area which would target 1086 on a 127% retracement. 
  Or price could simply bounce off the 50 dma and lower trendline in the 1045 
  range. Also bothering me is the break of the steep red trendline in all 
  breadth models even though the last high remains unconfirmed. 
   
  In sum, looking over my weekend work, I see little which has changed from 
  a week ago, a month ago, or even six months ago when the SPX was 1015 and 
  everything was pointing to a significant correction. Unless something changes 
  radically, I will not be pressing the short side as hard as expected.
   
  EarlTo 
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