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Stick with the plan, whatever it was! If you were bearish (or bullish) on
the intermediate term fundamentals of the market, did a couple of weeks of
decline (or rally) change the fundamentals? If not, then assess the
technicals. Has the intermediate term technical picture changed radically
during the past few weeks? If the fundamentals have not changed
significantly and the intermediate term technicals have not changed
significantly, then stick with the plan. If one or both have changed
significantly, then adjust the plan.
I see a market which is fundamentally very over valued, an economy which is
running on whatever air the government can pump into the credit system, a
world in which is the US$ is over priced and over extended, and a world in
which oil and gas is in flat to declining production. I see a stock market
in which the intermediate term rally is running out of gas, currency markets
in which the dollar is in an established downtrend, and credit markets which
are in turmoil within an established uptrend.
I began scaling into an intermediate term put position on the last rally and
will continue doing so should we get new highs ... I am now confident that
there is far more downside risk than upside opportunity in the stock market.
I have been holding intermediate term positions in Yen or Euro for some
months and will be adding to positions on the current dollar bounce. I have
muni bond positions which are yielding close to 7% tax free and have no
plans to cash them in. I have gas and oil trusts which are yielding close to
12%, with large capital gains to boot, and have not plans to sell until we
are well into winter. I also have sizeable cash positions for shopping when
opportunities arise. The point is, if one has a sound plan, one sticks with
it.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
To: <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, October 03, 2003 11:24 AM
Subject: [RT] The Top Is In
>
> And just when some of you folks had me convinced...KABOOM! Now what to do
> with all that cash and nothing I like to short. Ideas?
>
> On the real reason for this post...I now think the top is not in if the
> close is above previous high close.
>
> Sincerely,
>
> John
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