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[RT] Dec. T-Bonds - S&P 500



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Dear Norm,

Great post...I am trying to figure ou its implications since I know you do
not post capriciously.

Tidbits:

My barometer on Bonds is PIMCO Total return. Its price was less than 11 in
oct '02, hit 12 in June and now is around 11.50.

I think the market is in a groping stage...still with some good values.

And man, I sold my China stocks too soon.

I am looking seriously at WM.

Also scuttlebut is WMT is going into the used car business.

Sincerely,

John



>
>
>
>
> Dec. T-Bonds - SPY (S&P 500 Spyders)
>
>
>
>
>
>   This is the spread between Dec. T-Bonds and Spyders which is the S&P
> 500 divided by ten.   This shows what approximately equal dollars, in
> this case long T-Bonds and short S&Ps has done.  Please note the nice
> inverted head and shoulders bottom and that now the market has broken
> out to the upside.  This shows that the asset allocaters are selling
> stocks and buying bonds. The chart pattern indicates that this trend
> is likely to continue until the spread gets to a minimum of 12 with a
> good possibility for the 16 - 18 level.
>
> During the past six months, the high was 30 and the low  was 1.  The low
> occured
>
> the first week of Sept. 2003.




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