PureLinks - Finance Banners.
Jeffery (and Chris), Although I cannot do quarterly JY cash currency, I was playing around with the AGET monthly "inverted futures" to see if it agreed with your counts (it will likely zero in on a different time frame, normally a 300 bar count). It shows a 1-2-3-4-5 wave count down (first chart) which is the really internal count of your large wave 3 down (I added your longer term wave counts in red). As to whether the subsequent move from the wave 3 is (a) a wave 4 that is unfolding in an ABC pattern or (b) whether wave 4 is in, and prices are in the early stages of a 1-2 pattern down, there are some hints that might help build a strategy? Notice the AGET monthly chart (after the 5 wave sequence down) starts counting out a new 1-2-3-4 sequence up. Note the PTI of 5 indicates it basically does not like the pattern. It is saying that there is a low probability for that sequence, that a "normal wave 5" up will occur. It is projecting at best "a double top" compared to the prior peak and /or a failed 5th wave (meaning a new high is not made, failing somewhere beforehand), which is the first hint I noticed. Dropping to a weekly (second chart) allows one to view the sequence from the lows (wave 3 on the monthly) to see if it might offer up some clues. I added the possible internal counts if this was a big wave 4 unfolding in an ABC pattern (ala wave A is either a 3 or 5 wave pattern, wave B is a three pattern, and wave C a five wave pattern). Note the last rise, which is the the pattern that is being debated as to whether it is a either a wave C:4 or a wave 2 ( in which case wave B:4 is really wave 1 in a down sequence and this is a wave 2 rally). First there is a "very definite 5 wave sequence" to it and the wave 3 ends right in the 1.618 to 2.618 expansion of wave 1 added to the wave 2 bottom (also not shown was wave 4 ended just over a normal .382 retracement) with the ellipse tool catching the low exactly. I have shown the "normal wave 5 target range" expansions and it would indicate that the wave 5 will fall likely short of the prior peak of 147 (on the futures)? The question is why would the 5 wave sequence fall short of making a new high which normally occurs in an wave 4 A-B-C swing expansion pattern? Could it be "a wedge formation" will likely unfold here (wave C:4 will be lower than wave A:4)? Then again if this is a wave 2, it will be relabeled into a big A-B-C (wave 3 becomes A, wave 4 becomes B and wave 5 becomes C))? Looking at swing targets you would have the same range of 130 (.618) to 140 (1.0) on the futures. My point is both the wave 2 or wave C:4 could be right, at least initially and it really does not matter what it is from a trading pespective perhaps (as I have frequently said the key is to be on the right side of the trade and I have found EW frequently gets one there, even if counts change). The best guess here is prices will reach the wave 5 target range on the weekly at which time prices will reverse. Whether it is a wave 2 or a wave C:4 (completing a wedge), one will want to sell that break after a minor wave 4:5 occurs there (what I often call "the fooler", use the daily to identify it). Dropping down to a daily (third chart) will allow one to analyze just the internal 5 wave count of just the wave 5 rise on the weekly. It will likely give a good sell signal once 5 waves are complete (and if long like you Jeffery an exit point). Right now it is showing you are in a wave 3 there (so the wave 4 fooler = minor 4:5 weekly) is yet to come. Anyway that is my 2 1/2 cents worth . . . good luck in your currency trade (note charts are for futures which will vary slightly from the cash currency). don ewers > -----Original Message----- > From: Jeffrey Harteam > Sent: Sunday, December 09, 2001 8:49 PM > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx > Subject: Re: USDJPY - Quarterly > > > Greetings All: > > Here is my updated wave counts of the spot USDJPY chart in the quarterly > timeframe. Looking at the long-term chart, at this point in time, we are > either in the process of resolving the wave II (Yellow) of the Cycle Degree > or alternatively, we are trying to play out a wave C (Yellow) (not shown) of > the Cycle Degree. From a trading perspective, the decisive break of > 06/29/2001 high of 126.80 will trigger the continuation of the up rise of > the USDJPY to the +140.00- levels. Suffice to point out that whichever > counts we are favoring at this moment; the Spot USDJPY still has adequate > rooms to push for higher territories. Regards > > Have a good one > Jeff Harteam > Hong Kong > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ > > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> Call any phone in the world with Crystal Voice PC to phone, no monthly charge, $.39cents/minute to US. FREE trial. Click Here! http://us.click.yahoo.com/8SQRwC/VYfDAA/ySSFAA/zMEolB/TM ---------------------------------------------------------------------~-> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Attachment:
gif02327.gif
Description: "JY02Hday122101Inverted.gif"
Attachment:
gif02326.gif
Description: "JY02Hweek122101Inverted.gif"
Attachment:
gif02325.gif
Description: "JY02Hmonth122101Inverted.gif"