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Mike,
I am not sure at what time increment that the changes could become so
frequent that it would make a person feel like he was being wipsawed (the
changes are occuring since in a larger degree an more true pattern might be
evolving). At a minimum I think one needs to be able to go down to 60min
charts.
To try to put a pattern to "everything" just does not hold up from what I
have observed. Gold would be a good example (see the attached charts). The
daily chart has yielded little from an EW perspective as I see it and the
same is true on the weekly from mid 1999 on. However prior to 1999 the
weekly was tracking in a tradeable EW pattern . The lack of a pattern can
tell you something too, range trade it?
It is important to recognize that not all commodities and/or stocks, will
have "all the time", what I would call "great EW patterns" that would assist
one's trading. The key is to find those that are "behaving" and ignore
those that are not. Trading Techniques, who originated the software, often
stresses that if you feel like you are "forcing things to fit" then it is
best to move on to something else. If one wants to continue to trade those
that are "not behaving" then it is best to employ some "other" trading
methodology.
There are examples where looking for pattern in lower time frames does work
quite well. An example would be with the bonds. Recently in the wave 4
that you see in the 60min chart I posted earlier, a 15min chart did count
out a decent 5 wave pattern that did help identify that top (another member
on the list saw it and pointed it out to me, thanks DT). That observation,
along with the fib retracement target of .382 being hit and an ellipse all
where confirming the same thing and was helpful in the decision to get short
once it gave a sell signal.
Also looking for ABC corrections off of impulsive moves frequently provides
good retracement targets to re-enter the primary trend if you had the exited
the move and or had missed it initially, no matter what the time frame. I
have observed that frequently 5 wave patterns appear and are easily
identified if one cares to look, that can give one a hint of an upcoming
corrective move. I think Lee Morris on this list has real time AGET which
can do any time frame and apply EW counts to it, perhaps he would like to
comment.
Hope this helps, Mike?
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Ferguson" <wl7bdn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, December 07, 2001 6:49 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] RT: GEN: Eliot Who ?
> Thanks Don and others for the responses.
>
> I wonder at what point in time frame the wave pattern becomes less useful?
>
> I see the charts of weekly and daily counts that you guys with experience
> post, and follow the discussion to learn what I can. I think I had the
> impression that EW was fractal, more or less divisible into any detectable
> gyrations.
>
> If this is incorrect, at what point does the sub-elliot noise resolve or
> focus into discernable patterns?
>
> And hey, what's wrong with providing the liquidity to bump the noise into
> detectable patterns? It's a dirty job, but someone's gonna do it.
>
> LOL and enjoy the weekend.
>
> Michael
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
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