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Events will skew the markets for a short period of time and then continue on
their course. There hasn't been an event in history that changed the course of
the market for more then a day or two. Whether it be world war, Assination, or
any other event. The 3% factor can put a dent in your financial statement on
those knee jerk reactions.
Ray Raffurty wrote:
> >From a short tern point of view you can not discount such fears, in fact you
> should trade them in a contrary manor. I remember a few years ago, I was
> short a lot of index options and in a losing position, just about to be
> stopped out, when some idiot fired shots in the US Capitol building. For a
> few hours the market tanked, allowing me to get out with a profit. Had I
> increased my short I would have been wiped out. When the market settled the
> short position continued to go bad but the charts where skewed for some time
> to follow.
>
> But that should not influence a long term view. My contention is that from
> a longer term point of view 9-11 should be discounted much as one would
> discount a bad tick that has skewed their charts.
>
> Good luck and good trading,
>
> Ray Raffurty
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Daniel Goncharoff
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 10:37 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] 9-11 didn't exist
>
> Ray
>
> The market sank yesterday because a plane crashed. There was fear that
> it was another terrorist attack. Doesn't this disprove the notion that
> 9/11 can be ignored?
>
> Regards
> DanG
>
> > Ray Raffurty wrote:
> >
> > 9-11 DIDN"T EXIST!!! It was a giant consperancy perpertrated by the
> > airline industre to receive huge government bail outs. In fact the
> > films everyone thinks they saw where created in a Hollywood computer
> > animation lab (the same as the films of the moon landings where).
> >
> >
> > OK, now that I've got your attention, what I mean to say is that from
> > a charting / technical analysis point of view perhaps all data between
> > 9/11/01 and today 11/13/01 should be deleted.
> >
> > I hope everyone had the courage and means to go long (almost
> > anything) shortly after the market reopened following the tragedy of
> > 9-11, but where do we go from here now that many stocks and the market
> > in general is back to pre 9-11 levels? I believe most standard
> > indicators whether price based or volume base are drastically skewed
> > due to 9-11 and the market's recovery. This is most apparent on daily
> > charts of 6 month duration or less (see pic 1)
> >
> > One way to accomplish this would be to back up the time frame, say to
> > 1 year or longer (pic 2). The problem here is that this may not
> > represent everyone's style of trading.
> >
> > My hypothesis is that all data between 9/11/01 and 11/13/01(and
> > perhaps even longer as events unfold) should be deleted.
> > Unfortunately I do not have the means to do this at this time.
> > However I think it might be an interesting line of research for
> > a magazine article or even a thesis. In fact one might extend the
> > idea to other similar events and develop a trading strategies as the
> > result.
> >
> > If nothing else it would make interesting conversation at your next
> > cocktail party.
> >
> > Good luck and good trading,
> >
> > Ray Raffurty
> >
> >
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> >
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> >
> > Name: pic1.gif
> > pic1.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > Encoding: base64
> >
> > Name: pic2.gif
> > pic2.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > Encoding: base64
>
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