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<SPAN
class=890151707-13112001>Norman,
<SPAN
class=890151707-13112001>The Mass Pressure Chart has certainly been a goody
are you using that for your forecasts too?
It is
showing a low in Spetember and a strong rally into December <FONT
color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>for the Dow as
per my post in early
<SPAN
class=890151707-13112001>September.Why do you think Binny will get
binned then?
<SPAN
class=890151707-13112001>
<SPAN
class=890151707-13112001>Apparently the carpet bombs are much lighter than in
Kosovo but I guess they have less clue what they are trying to
get.
<SPAN
class=890151707-13112001>
<SPAN
class=890151707-13112001>Regards
David
Hunt
<A
href="http://www.adest.com.au";>www.adest.com.au
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Norman Winski
[mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001
3:06 PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
Layoff's continue to
increaseBruce, I am looking for a
good bounce into the new year. Holiday shoppingshould be better that
expected. Bin Laden should be captured or killedcirca
February.Cheers,Norman----- Original Message
-----From: <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Monday, November 12, 2001 10:25
PMSubject: Re: [RT] Layoff's continue to increase> So
Norm: how long do you expect this recovery to last? I'm
assuming> you're talking about a few years since you're calling it an
economic> recovery and not just some bounce. I would have
expected that Saturn> Pluto opposition into next May to temper your
enthusiasm at least> until next summer. Now you got me scratchin'
my head.>>> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Norman Winski"
<nwinski@xxxx> wrote:> > M Simms,> >>
> I don't find that concept so unusual. The stock market
tends to> over> > discount possible future events in both
directions. During the very> cyclic> > 60s and 70s, Nobel
Prize winning economist Paul Samuelson said that> the> >
stock market had forecast 11 of the past 6 recessions. On the>
other side of> > the coin, it was very unlikely that the Japanese
economy would meet> the late> > 80s expectations reflected by
the 100 and 200 price to earnings> ratios of> > many of their
leading stocks even during prosperous times. The> result
is> > that their stock market bubble is still unwinding. It took 25
years> for the> > DJIA to get back to even after the 1929
peak. In reference to> > our NASDAQ and the unwinding of the 2k
internet bubble, I quote> Karen> > Carpenter, "We've only
just begun". A good analogy would be to> check the> >
performance of the growth stocks of the late 1920s such as RCA and> GM.
and> > plot their performance for the ensuing 30 years. Yes,
given the> right> > timing one could have made an excellent
return buying these stocks,> but that> > "IF" is the "if"
that made all of the difference.> >> > What
this means for the next few years is that even if we get a> few>
> boomlets, the stock market is likely to underperform the
underylying> > economic results. This is due to major forces now
coverging that> should> > cause a major long term contraction
of price earnings ratios. These> forces> > are 1) stock PEs
are historically way overpriced despite an 18 month> >
correction. 2) Major fiscal and eocnomic stimulus is the
current> only hope> > to revive this economy and avert a
possible depression. This> stimulus isn't> > free and will
come from borrowing from the future. It will also> cause some>
> inflation if and when there is any economic recovery. The ensuing>
inflation> > will cause further PE contraction because PE ratios are
optimized> when there> > is a very low inflation rate. We can
expect an economy more like> the late> > 60s and early 70s
for the next few years. After the current> recovery, which> >
I think may have begun last week, we can expect a bigger and deeper>
> recession which may result in the stock market getting market
down> to a> > median historical level in terms of
valuatoin.> > So, how does one make money in this
enviroment? In order to play> the> > coming economic
recovery, forget about over valued high PE stocks.> You will>
> have to be very selective if you buy stocks and hope to make a
good> return> > on the long side. The best bet
currently is to invest in one of> the several> > very
depressed commodities such as Coffee, Cotton, Copper,> Soybeans,
Sugar,> > or Silver. All of these markets could easily
appreciate 50% and> barely get> > back to prices that they
were trading 30 year ago. Check it out.> Save this> >
note and check back in February 2002.> >> >
Cheers,> >> > Norman> >> >>
> ----- Original Message -----> > From: "M. Simms"
<prosys@xxxx>> > To: <realtraders@xxxx>> >
Sent: Monday, November 12, 2001 3:36 PM> > Subject: RE: [RT]
Layoff's continue to increase> >> >> > >
Hmmm....attached chart shows the Nikkei average down 70% since>
1990.> > > I guess their stock market acts independent of their
economy> then ?> > > Wow - that's a first.> >
>> > > > -----Original Message-----> > > >
From: bruce.larson@xxxx [mailto:bruce.larson@xxxx]> > > >
Sent: Monday, November 12, 2001 2:14 PM> > > > To:
realtraders@xxxx> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Layoff's continue to
increase> > > >> > > >> > > >
That's a popular misconception. Japan's gdp growth outstripped>
that> > > > of the US for the first half of the 90s.
Real estate did OK in> the> > > > early 90s as
well. Initially, the pain was isolated to the> stock> >
> > market. Yen strength into 1995 which interestingly
coincided> with> > > > the Kobe earthquake and Nick
Leeson hit hard. Short-term rates> were> > > >
3-4% from 1986-89, they were 3-4% in 1992-93. Short rates>
dipped> > > > below 1% after 1995.> > > > You
know what I also find interesting? Everytime I talk to> people
I> > > > know in Japan, they say its business as usual.
Its primarily> > > > manufacturing and brokerage that are
suffering. Otherwise,> Tokyo is> > > >
bustling. I remember in the go-go 80s these same people said>
the> > > > stock market boom didn't really effect them
either. Just made> real> > > > estate prices
sky-high. But they already owned homes and> weren't> >
> > planning on moving so it didn't make any difference.
For> others,> > > > what was then beyond their reach is
now affordable. If you> leveraged> > > > your
home and bought more real estate or stocks at the late 80>
early> > > > 90s mania you're screwed. No different than
the Nasdaq mania.> If> > > > you weren't in it, you
never got rich nor poor. Just a sonic> boom> > >
> that rattled the windows. I'm sure if you bought Silicon>
Valley real> > > > estate in the mid-90s, your home has
doubled in value. The only> > > > people worried are
those that bought in the past 2 years.> > > >> >
> >> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "M. Simms"
<prosys@xxxx> wrote:> > > > > Yeah, that's exactly
what happened to Japan.....interest> rates went> > > >
to zero,> > > > > prices went to near-zero......and they've
been in recession> for 10> > > > YEARS.> >
> > >> > > > >> > > > > >
-----Original Message-----> > > > > > From:
bruce.larson@xxxx [mailto:bruce.larson@xxxx]> > > > > >
Sent: Monday, November 12, 2001 12:33 PM> > > > > > To:
realtraders@xxxx> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Layoff's
continue to increase> > > > > >> > > >
> >> > > > > > Sorry but I'm simply astonished at
how cheap everything> is. The> > > > rest>
> > > > > of the US pumps its gas for 90c-$1.30/gal. We
were all> > > > incredulous> > > > > >
the other day that our favorite PapaJohn's pizza is> offering 2>
> > > large> > > > > > pizzas for $12.99.
I used to pay $15 for one large pizza at> > > > > >
RoundTable 20 years ago. My wife is going crazy buying>
clothes> > > > > > because they are giving'em
away. Everyone in my> neighborhood> > > >
bought> > > > > > brand new Mercedes from their 5%
cashout refis. Mortgage> rates> > > > are>
> > > > > down making everything more affordable, tax rates are
going> down> > > > > > making everything more
affordable, airfares appear half> price> > > > from
a> > > > > > few months back, zero interest rates and
deferred payments> on> > > > > > everything from
cars to computers to furtniture, soon> everything> > >
> will> > > > > > be free.> > > >
> >> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, Ira Tunik
<irat@xxxx> wrote:> > > > > > > In the bay area
a lot of high priced people have been> laid off.> > > >
> > 500 from> > > > > > > Medtronics, several
hundred from Agilent, and many of the> > > > telecom>
> > > > > companies> > > > > > > have
folded their tents. Some of the big telecom> companies
have> > > > > > laid off> > > > >
> > hundreds. Those $700,000 to million dollar homes that>
where> > > > going> > > > > > like
hot> > > > > > > cakes last year might just come back
on the market. Even> the> > > > wine> > >
> > > industry> > > > > > > which is big in
Sonoma and Napa counties is taking a hit> with> > > >
> > layoffs. Yet> > > > > > > the owners
of retail space keep raising the rents,> Apartment> > >
> houses> > > > > > have a 2%> > > >
> > > vacancy factor and their rents keep climbing.
Everyone> says> > > > that> > > > >
> we are in a> > > > > > > deflationary spiral and
prices are coming down. Air fares> are> > > > > >
supposed to be> > > > > > > a bargain. forget
it. Checked on flights to Hawaii, they> are> > >
> twice> > > > > > what they> > > >
> > > were the last time I went just over a year ago. I
am> wondering> > > > > > what good the>
> > > > > > producer price index is when we import almost
everything> we use.> > > > > > Cloths and>
> > > > > > shoes from the far east, food and vegetables
from South> America> > > > and> > > >
> > > Australia, timber from Canada, oil from the middle
east,> > > > > > electronics from the> > >
> > > > far east and auto parts from all over. We do
produce> missiles> > > > and> > > >
> > airplanes> > > > > > > here and I am sure
that every household has at least two> or> > > >
three> > > > > > of each.> > > > >
> > The made in America symbol means very little. It
should> read,> > > > > > assembled in>
> > > > > > America, parts made elsewhere. So when you see
all those> fancy> > > > > > numbers, look>
> > > > > > at the balance of payments and see where your
dollars are> really> > > > > > going.
Of> > > > > > > course gas prices are back down to
$1.75, a real bargain.> > > > Medical> > > >
> > costs are> > > > > > > up, health insurance
costs are up, dental work costs more,> > > > almost>
> > > > > everything> > > > > > > you
buy to sustain life is up in cost. Of course you can> buy
a> > > > 2> > > > > > MHz> >
> > > > > computer for under $2000 and that is proof that
prices are> > > > coming> > > > > >
down. How> > > > > > > many of you buy a
computer on a weekly basis? Is it> really 0%> > >
> > > financing on a> > > > > > > new car or
is the cost hidden in the price? What is> truth and> >
> > what> > > > > > is> > > > >
> > fiction in the numbers that are thrown our way? Could
you> > > > maintain> > > > > > the
same> > > > > > > life style on last years income or
on the income from 5> years> > > > ago?> >
> > > > As the> > > > > > > powers say,
we haven't had any inflation for the past 5> years.> > >
> Is> > > > > > there any> > > > >
> > correlation between the governments CPI, PPI and>
inflation> > > > numbers> > > > > > and
the> > > > > > > cost of living. They produce
the numbers, we have to pay> to> > > > live.>
> > > > > Oh, yes.> > > > > > > You
did get a tax rebate and immediately went out and> bought> >
> > that> > > > > > cabin> > > >
> > > cruiser you where looking at with all that money the>
government> > > > > > returned to> > > >
> > > you. Have a good week. Ira.> > > > >
> >> > > > > > >> > > > >
> > bruce.larson@xxxx wrote:> > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > I've read plenty about
hospitality and tourism being> hit in> > > >
Orange> > > > > > > > County(Disneyland) where I
live. But these are all> minimum> > > >
wage> > > > > > jobs> > > > > >
> > (restaurants, airlines, hotels) where there was a labor> >
> > shortage> > > > > > > > several months
back. These aren't people who buy> expensive> > >
> homes> > > > > > and> > > > >
> > > cars.> > > > > > > >> >
> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Me Tarzan"
<ibe98765@xxxx>> wrote:> > > > > > >
> > "I, for one, don't personally know anyone who is out> of
a> > > > job"> > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > Consider yourself
lucky. I know way too many. With> all the> > >
> > > > > defense> > > > > > > >
> spending going on, So. CA might not get hot too bad.> But>
> > > IMO,> > > > > > the> > >
> > > > > SF> > > > > > > > >
Bay area is the harbinger for much of the rest of the> > > >
country in> > > > > > > > this> > >
> > > > > > regard. We even have a web site for out of
work> people to> > > > get> > > > >
> > > > together and do other activities <g>> >
> > > > > > (<A
href="http://www.recessioncamp.com).">http://www.recessioncamp.com).>
> > > > > > > > I'm a few miles from SF Airport where
United Airlines> has a> > > > > > major>
> > > > > > > > hub. They have laid off a good
number of people> here. I> > > > hear>
> > > > > that> > > > > > > > >
In-n-Out burgers has lowered their starting hourly> rate from>
> > > > > $10/hr> > > > > > > >
> to $8 because their are so many candidates. Hotels>
are> > > > mostly> > > > > >
less> > > > > > > > > than 50% full and are
laying off or cutting back the> hours> > > > of>
> > > > > > > > workers. Restaurants are cutting
staff because> people are> > > > not> > >
> > > > > eating> > > > > > > >
> out as much or spending as much when they do. There>
are> > > > rental> > > > > > > >
> vacancy signs all over my neighborhood as people> without>
> > > jobs> > > > > > have> > >
> > > > > > either moved in with someone else or left the
area.> > > > Recruiters> > > > > >
are> > > > > > > > > going out of business left
and right, saying> businesses are> > > > not>
> > > > > > > > hiring. People are
hurting.> > > > > > > > >> > >
> > > > > > As to the unemployment numbers and 5.4% being
lower> than> > > > what> > > > >
> was> > > > > > > > > previously accepted -
that was a different time.> We've> > > > built>
> > > > > our> > > > > > > > >
current economy around low unemployment. People>
expecting> > > > to> > > > > > > >
always> > > > > > > > > be able to find work
went out on a limb to buy> expensive> > > >
houses,> > > > > > > > cars> > > >
> > > > > and take 2 vacations a year. That drove the
economy> forward> > > > > > across> >
> > > > > > > all industries. But up here, it
generally takes two> working> > > > > >
people> > > > > > > > > to even begin to afford
a mortgage. What happens> when at> > > >
least> > > > > > one> > > > > >
> > > of those people loses their job? Bad news
cascades> and not> > > > > > only do> >
> > > > > > > people not by houses and cars, but they cut
back on> other> > > > > > spending> >
> > > > > > as> > > > > > > >
> well. Predictions I have seen are for unemployment> to
hit> > > > 6%> > > > > > when>
> > > > > > > it> > > > > > >
> > the numbers are next reported.> > > > > > >
> >> > > > > > > > > Here's a good
economic link with a lot of info on> > > >
unemployment> > > > > > that> > > > >
> > > I> > > > > > > > > recently came
across:> > > > > > > > > <A
href="http://www.epinet.org/";>http://www.epinet.org/> > >
> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, bruce.larson@xxxx
wrote:> > > > > > > > > > I've been reading
about massive corporate lay-offs> esp> > > > > >
associated> > > > > > > > > > with banking
mergers for the past 5 years. Seemed> > > >
everyone> > > > > > just> > > > >
> > > > got> > > > > > > > > > a
big fat severance package and turned around and> got> > >
> another> > > > > > job> > > > >
> > > > for> > > > > > > > > >
more money. Otherwise they got rehired as> consultants
for> > > > > > better> > > > > >
> > > > pay. I suppose the payrolls and claims data
are> > > > confirming> > > > > >
the> > > > > > > > > > negative news reports
for the past several months.> But> > > > on the>
> > > > > > > > other> > > > > >
> > > > hand, a 5.4% unemployment rate is far below the>
previous> > > > 6%> > > > > > > >
> standard> > > > > > > > > > of
NAIRU(non-accelerating inflationary rate of> > > >
unemployemnt)> > > > > > > > > commonly>
> > > > > > > > > accepted in the early 90s.
I, for one, don't> personally> > > > know> >
> > > > > > > anyone> > > > > >
> > > > who is out of a job. Aside from some
furniture> chain> > > > store> > > >
> > > > > closures,> > > > > > > >
> > I really don't see much evidence of a slowdown out> here
in> > > > > > > > southern> > > >
> > > > > > California...yet.> > > > >
> > > > >> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > --- In
realtraders@xxxx, "Norman Winski"> <nwinski@xxxx>> >
> > wrote:> > > > > > > > > > >
Me,> > > > > > > > > > >> >
> > > > > > > > > I am
forecasting a better than expected holiday> > > >
shopping> > > > > > > > > > >
season. The US economiy bottomed last week. You> will>
> > > hear> > > > > > about> > >
> > > > > > > > it in February.> > > >
> > > > > > >> > > > > > > >
> > > Cheers,> > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > Norman>
> > > > > > > > > >> > > > >
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----> > >
> > > > > > > > From: "Me Tarzan"
<ibe98765@xxxx>> > > > > > > > > >
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>> > > > > > > >
> > > Sent: Saturday, November 10, 2001 1:50 AM> > >
> > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] Layoff's continue to
increase> > > > > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > > > >> > > > >
> > > > > > > Each layoff likely removes one more shopper
for> the> > > > Xmas> > > > > >
> > > season...> > > > > > > > > >
> >> > > > > > > > > > > > <A
href="http://www.msnbc.com/news/555872.asp?cp1=1";>http://www.msnbc.com/news/555872.asp?cp1=1>
> > > > > > > > > > >> > > >
> > > > > > > >> > > > > > >
> > > > >> > > > > > > > > >
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>> > > > > > > > > > > >>
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