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That's a popular misconception. Japan's gdp growth outstripped that
of the US for the first half of the 90s. Real estate did OK in the
early 90s as well. Initially, the pain was isolated to the stock
market. Yen strength into 1995 which interestingly coincided with
the Kobe earthquake and Nick Leeson hit hard. Short-term rates were
3-4% from 1986-89, they were 3-4% in 1992-93. Short rates dipped
below 1% after 1995.
You know what I also find interesting? Everytime I talk to people I
know in Japan, they say its business as usual. Its primarily
manufacturing and brokerage that are suffering. Otherwise, Tokyo is
bustling. I remember in the go-go 80s these same people said the
stock market boom didn't really effect them either. Just made real
estate prices sky-high. But they already owned homes and weren't
planning on moving so it didn't make any difference. For others,
what was then beyond their reach is now affordable. If you leveraged
your home and bought more real estate or stocks at the late 80 early
90s mania you're screwed. No different than the Nasdaq mania. If
you weren't in it, you never got rich nor poor. Just a sonic boom
that rattled the windows. I'm sure if you bought Silicon Valley real
estate in the mid-90s, your home has doubled in value. The only
people worried are those that bought in the past 2 years.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx> wrote:
> Yeah, that's exactly what happened to Japan.....interest rates went
to zero,
> prices went to near-zero......and they've been in recession for 10
YEARS.
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: bruce.larson@xxxx [mailto:bruce.larson@x...]
> > Sent: Monday, November 12, 2001 12:33 PM
> > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Layoff's continue to increase
> >
> >
> > Sorry but I'm simply astonished at how cheap everything is. The
rest
> > of the US pumps its gas for 90c-$1.30/gal. We were all
incredulous
> > the other day that our favorite PapaJohn's pizza is offering 2
large
> > pizzas for $12.99. I used to pay $15 for one large pizza at
> > RoundTable 20 years ago. My wife is going crazy buying clothes
> > because they are giving'em away. Everyone in my neighborhood
bought
> > brand new Mercedes from their 5% cashout refis. Mortgage rates
are
> > down making everything more affordable, tax rates are going down
> > making everything more affordable, airfares appear half price
from a
> > few months back, zero interest rates and deferred payments on
> > everything from cars to computers to furtniture, soon everything
will
> > be free.
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, Ira Tunik <irat@xxxx> wrote:
> > > In the bay area a lot of high priced people have been laid off.
> > 500 from
> > > Medtronics, several hundred from Agilent, and many of the
telecom
> > companies
> > > have folded their tents. Some of the big telecom companies have
> > laid off
> > > hundreds. Those $700,000 to million dollar homes that where
going
> > like hot
> > > cakes last year might just come back on the market. Even the
wine
> > industry
> > > which is big in Sonoma and Napa counties is taking a hit with
> > layoffs. Yet
> > > the owners of retail space keep raising the rents, Apartment
houses
> > have a 2%
> > > vacancy factor and their rents keep climbing. Everyone says
that
> > we are in a
> > > deflationary spiral and prices are coming down. Air fares are
> > supposed to be
> > > a bargain. forget it. Checked on flights to Hawaii, they are
twice
> > what they
> > > were the last time I went just over a year ago. I am wondering
> > what good the
> > > producer price index is when we import almost everything we use.
> > Cloths and
> > > shoes from the far east, food and vegetables from South America
and
> > > Australia, timber from Canada, oil from the middle east,
> > electronics from the
> > > far east and auto parts from all over. We do produce missiles
and
> > airplanes
> > > here and I am sure that every household has at least two or
three
> > of each.
> > > The made in America symbol means very little. It should read,
> > assembled in
> > > America, parts made elsewhere. So when you see all those fancy
> > numbers, look
> > > at the balance of payments and see where your dollars are really
> > going. Of
> > > course gas prices are back down to $1.75, a real bargain.
Medical
> > costs are
> > > up, health insurance costs are up, dental work costs more,
almost
> > everything
> > > you buy to sustain life is up in cost. Of course you can buy a
2
> > MHz
> > > computer for under $2000 and that is proof that prices are
coming
> > down. How
> > > many of you buy a computer on a weekly basis? Is it really 0%
> > financing on a
> > > new car or is the cost hidden in the price? What is truth and
what
> > is
> > > fiction in the numbers that are thrown our way? Could you
maintain
> > the same
> > > life style on last years income or on the income from 5 years
ago?
> > As the
> > > powers say, we haven't had any inflation for the past 5 years.
Is
> > there any
> > > correlation between the governments CPI, PPI and inflation
numbers
> > and the
> > > cost of living. They produce the numbers, we have to pay to
live.
> > Oh, yes.
> > > You did get a tax rebate and immediately went out and bought
that
> > cabin
> > > cruiser you where looking at with all that money the government
> > returned to
> > > you. Have a good week. Ira.
> > >
> > >
> > > bruce.larson@xxxx wrote:
> > >
> > > > I've read plenty about hospitality and tourism being hit in
Orange
> > > > County(Disneyland) where I live. But these are all minimum
wage
> > jobs
> > > > (restaurants, airlines, hotels) where there was a labor
shortage
> > > > several months back. These aren't people who buy expensive
homes
> > and
> > > > cars.
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Me Tarzan" <ibe98765@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > "I, for one, don't personally know anyone who is out of a
job"
> > > > >
> > > > > Consider yourself lucky. I know way too many. With all the
> > > > defense
> > > > > spending going on, So. CA might not get hot too bad. But
IMO,
> > the
> > > > SF
> > > > > Bay area is the harbinger for much of the rest of the
country in
> > > > this
> > > > > regard. We even have a web site for out of work people to
get
> > > > > together and do other activities <g>
> > > > (http://www.recessioncamp.com).
> > > > > I'm a few miles from SF Airport where United Airlines has a
> > major
> > > > > hub. They have laid off a good number of people here. I
hear
> > that
> > > > > In-n-Out burgers has lowered their starting hourly rate from
> > $10/hr
> > > > > to $8 because their are so many candidates. Hotels are
mostly
> > less
> > > > > than 50% full and are laying off or cutting back the hours
of
> > > > > workers. Restaurants are cutting staff because people are
not
> > > > eating
> > > > > out as much or spending as much when they do. There are
rental
> > > > > vacancy signs all over my neighborhood as people without
jobs
> > have
> > > > > either moved in with someone else or left the area.
Recruiters
> > are
> > > > > going out of business left and right, saying businesses are
not
> > > > > hiring. People are hurting.
> > > > >
> > > > > As to the unemployment numbers and 5.4% being lower than
what
> > was
> > > > > previously accepted - that was a different time. We've
built
> > our
> > > > > current economy around low unemployment. People expecting
to
> > > > always
> > > > > be able to find work went out on a limb to buy expensive
houses,
> > > > cars
> > > > > and take 2 vacations a year. That drove the economy forward
> > across
> > > > > all industries. But up here, it generally takes two working
> > people
> > > > > to even begin to afford a mortgage. What happens when at
least
> > one
> > > > > of those people loses their job? Bad news cascades and not
> > only do
> > > > > people not by houses and cars, but they cut back on other
> > spending
> > > > as
> > > > > well. Predictions I have seen are for unemployment to hit
6%
> > when
> > > > it
> > > > > the numbers are next reported.
> > > > >
> > > > > Here's a good economic link with a lot of info on
unemployment
> > that
> > > > I
> > > > > recently came across:
> > > > > http://www.epinet.org/
> > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, bruce.larson@xxxx wrote:
> > > > > > I've been reading about massive corporate lay-offs esp
> > associated
> > > > > > with banking mergers for the past 5 years. Seemed
everyone
> > just
> > > > > got
> > > > > > a big fat severance package and turned around and got
another
> > job
> > > > > for
> > > > > > more money. Otherwise they got rehired as consultants for
> > better
> > > > > > pay. I suppose the payrolls and claims data are
confirming
> > the
> > > > > > negative news reports for the past several months. But
on the
> > > > > other
> > > > > > hand, a 5.4% unemployment rate is far below the previous
6%
> > > > > standard
> > > > > > of NAIRU(non-accelerating inflationary rate of
unemployemnt)
> > > > > commonly
> > > > > > accepted in the early 90s. I, for one, don't personally
know
> > > > > anyone
> > > > > > who is out of a job. Aside from some furniture chain
store
> > > > > closures,
> > > > > > I really don't see much evidence of a slowdown out here in
> > > > southern
> > > > > > California...yet.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > > > > > Me,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I am forecasting a better than expected holiday
shopping
> > > > > > > season. The US economiy bottomed last week. You will
hear
> > about
> > > > > > > it in February.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Cheers,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Norman
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "Me Tarzan" <ibe98765@xxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Saturday, November 10, 2001 1:50 AM
> > > > > > > Subject: [RT] Layoff's continue to increase
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Each layoff likely removes one more shopper for the
Xmas
> > > > > season...
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > http://www.msnbc.com/news/555872.asp?cp1=1
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
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> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
> >
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> >
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