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Yeah, that's exactly what happened to Japan.....interest rates went to zero,
prices went to near-zero......and they've been in recession for 10 YEARS.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Monday, November 12, 2001 12:33 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] Layoff's continue to increase
>
>
> Sorry but I'm simply astonished at how cheap everything is. The rest
> of the US pumps its gas for 90c-$1.30/gal. We were all incredulous
> the other day that our favorite PapaJohn's pizza is offering 2 large
> pizzas for $12.99. I used to pay $15 for one large pizza at
> RoundTable 20 years ago. My wife is going crazy buying clothes
> because they are giving'em away. Everyone in my neighborhood bought
> brand new Mercedes from their 5% cashout refis. Mortgage rates are
> down making everything more affordable, tax rates are going down
> making everything more affordable, airfares appear half price from a
> few months back, zero interest rates and deferred payments on
> everything from cars to computers to furtniture, soon everything will
> be free.
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, Ira Tunik <irat@xxxx> wrote:
> > In the bay area a lot of high priced people have been laid off.
> 500 from
> > Medtronics, several hundred from Agilent, and many of the telecom
> companies
> > have folded their tents. Some of the big telecom companies have
> laid off
> > hundreds. Those $700,000 to million dollar homes that where going
> like hot
> > cakes last year might just come back on the market. Even the wine
> industry
> > which is big in Sonoma and Napa counties is taking a hit with
> layoffs. Yet
> > the owners of retail space keep raising the rents, Apartment houses
> have a 2%
> > vacancy factor and their rents keep climbing. Everyone says that
> we are in a
> > deflationary spiral and prices are coming down. Air fares are
> supposed to be
> > a bargain. forget it. Checked on flights to Hawaii, they are twice
> what they
> > were the last time I went just over a year ago. I am wondering
> what good the
> > producer price index is when we import almost everything we use.
> Cloths and
> > shoes from the far east, food and vegetables from South America and
> > Australia, timber from Canada, oil from the middle east,
> electronics from the
> > far east and auto parts from all over. We do produce missiles and
> airplanes
> > here and I am sure that every household has at least two or three
> of each.
> > The made in America symbol means very little. It should read,
> assembled in
> > America, parts made elsewhere. So when you see all those fancy
> numbers, look
> > at the balance of payments and see where your dollars are really
> going. Of
> > course gas prices are back down to $1.75, a real bargain. Medical
> costs are
> > up, health insurance costs are up, dental work costs more, almost
> everything
> > you buy to sustain life is up in cost. Of course you can buy a 2
> MHz
> > computer for under $2000 and that is proof that prices are coming
> down. How
> > many of you buy a computer on a weekly basis? Is it really 0%
> financing on a
> > new car or is the cost hidden in the price? What is truth and what
> is
> > fiction in the numbers that are thrown our way? Could you maintain
> the same
> > life style on last years income or on the income from 5 years ago?
> As the
> > powers say, we haven't had any inflation for the past 5 years. Is
> there any
> > correlation between the governments CPI, PPI and inflation numbers
> and the
> > cost of living. They produce the numbers, we have to pay to live.
> Oh, yes.
> > You did get a tax rebate and immediately went out and bought that
> cabin
> > cruiser you where looking at with all that money the government
> returned to
> > you. Have a good week. Ira.
> >
> >
> > bruce.larson@xxxx wrote:
> >
> > > I've read plenty about hospitality and tourism being hit in Orange
> > > County(Disneyland) where I live. But these are all minimum wage
> jobs
> > > (restaurants, airlines, hotels) where there was a labor shortage
> > > several months back. These aren't people who buy expensive homes
> and
> > > cars.
> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Me Tarzan" <ibe98765@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > "I, for one, don't personally know anyone who is out of a job"
> > > >
> > > > Consider yourself lucky. I know way too many. With all the
> > > defense
> > > > spending going on, So. CA might not get hot too bad. But IMO,
> the
> > > SF
> > > > Bay area is the harbinger for much of the rest of the country in
> > > this
> > > > regard. We even have a web site for out of work people to get
> > > > together and do other activities <g>
> > > (http://www.recessioncamp.com).
> > > > I'm a few miles from SF Airport where United Airlines has a
> major
> > > > hub. They have laid off a good number of people here. I hear
> that
> > > > In-n-Out burgers has lowered their starting hourly rate from
> $10/hr
> > > > to $8 because their are so many candidates. Hotels are mostly
> less
> > > > than 50% full and are laying off or cutting back the hours of
> > > > workers. Restaurants are cutting staff because people are not
> > > eating
> > > > out as much or spending as much when they do. There are rental
> > > > vacancy signs all over my neighborhood as people without jobs
> have
> > > > either moved in with someone else or left the area. Recruiters
> are
> > > > going out of business left and right, saying businesses are not
> > > > hiring. People are hurting.
> > > >
> > > > As to the unemployment numbers and 5.4% being lower than what
> was
> > > > previously accepted - that was a different time. We've built
> our
> > > > current economy around low unemployment. People expecting to
> > > always
> > > > be able to find work went out on a limb to buy expensive houses,
> > > cars
> > > > and take 2 vacations a year. That drove the economy forward
> across
> > > > all industries. But up here, it generally takes two working
> people
> > > > to even begin to afford a mortgage. What happens when at least
> one
> > > > of those people loses their job? Bad news cascades and not
> only do
> > > > people not by houses and cars, but they cut back on other
> spending
> > > as
> > > > well. Predictions I have seen are for unemployment to hit 6%
> when
> > > it
> > > > the numbers are next reported.
> > > >
> > > > Here's a good economic link with a lot of info on unemployment
> that
> > > I
> > > > recently came across:
> > > > http://www.epinet.org/
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, bruce.larson@xxxx wrote:
> > > > > I've been reading about massive corporate lay-offs esp
> associated
> > > > > with banking mergers for the past 5 years. Seemed everyone
> just
> > > > got
> > > > > a big fat severance package and turned around and got another
> job
> > > > for
> > > > > more money. Otherwise they got rehired as consultants for
> better
> > > > > pay. I suppose the payrolls and claims data are confirming
> the
> > > > > negative news reports for the past several months. But on the
> > > > other
> > > > > hand, a 5.4% unemployment rate is far below the previous 6%
> > > > standard
> > > > > of NAIRU(non-accelerating inflationary rate of unemployemnt)
> > > > commonly
> > > > > accepted in the early 90s. I, for one, don't personally know
> > > > anyone
> > > > > who is out of a job. Aside from some furniture chain store
> > > > closures,
> > > > > I really don't see much evidence of a slowdown out here in
> > > southern
> > > > > California...yet.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > Me,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I am forecasting a better than expected holiday shopping
> > > > > > season. The US economiy bottomed last week. You will hear
> about
> > > > > > it in February.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Cheers,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Norman
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "Me Tarzan" <ibe98765@xxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Saturday, November 10, 2001 1:50 AM
> > > > > > Subject: [RT] Layoff's continue to increase
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Each layoff likely removes one more shopper for the Xmas
> > > > season...
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > http://www.msnbc.com/news/555872.asp?cp1=1
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
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> > >
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