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Yes, this behaviour is consistent, albeit, I've not
traded NYH gasoline for a number of years. We tended to see a run up in price
during the gasoline season. Apparently, you guys tend to have
holiudays and stuff like that in the summer. There is then a fall off in the
autumn (you guys call it the fall) and a run up in heating oil as we approach
winter. Herewith the excerpt from API commentary for last week:
Brent gas oil traded 75 cents lower at $243.75 a tonne.
Statistics released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) late on Tuesday
showed an increase in crude and overall gasoline supplies. The API said crude
inventories in the United States rose by just over two million barrels to 326
million barrels, putting tanks 21 million barrels ahead of last year as hefty
imports added to existing storage.
But gasoline got a boost after the API said stocks of the cleaner-burning
reformulated gasoline (RFG) fell by more than one million barrels, widening the
year-on-year deficit to more than three million barrels and raising the spectre
of fuel shortages during peak summer demand season.
The API reported gasoline stocks rose 1.28 million barrels, almost one
million barrels less than market predictions and 1.8 million barrels above
levels at the same time last year. But it said supplies of the anti-smog RFG,
required at a third of U.S. pumps, declined by almost 1.2 million barrels or
eight percent below a year-ago to nearly 40 million barrels. Wafer-thin gasoline
supplies ahead of the driving season pushed gasoline futures prices to record
highs in late April at more than $1.16 a gallon on the New York Mercantile
Exchange.
Whilst refining margins have been postive recently,
can't really comment on Chevron as a company to understand it's balance between
up and downstream pricing.
FWIW, as a general tendency falling crude prices tend
to benefit those who are long refining capacity and v.v.
DJ
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----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <<A
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, May 27, 2001 9:59 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Back in the oil bidniz, please help me mr.
president
> Steve,> FWIW the attached "weekly" Unleaded Gas
chart would support your long> position on Chevron (in a longer time
frame) with higher prices likely ahead> (as the wave 5 target range is
approached). The previous wave 4 retracement> came in just above the
50% level (wave 2 to wave 3) and it had a well> formed ABC
pattern to it, which I generally prefer to see in a wave 4. All> in
all, a textbook EW pattern has been unfolding (so far) on the weekly.>
> The MOB target area ("make or break" starts at 130 (to 134.80) from
the> current price of 111.69) and it might be a good "get off point" if
your long> recommendation on Chevron works out. The timing marks
on the MOB indicate> the possible timeframe for this price advance (1st
black vertical timing bar> is the week of 6-1 and the 2nd the week of
9-14, with a half way point the> week of 7-27, rough halfway points I
am told (Earl) tend to come in more> than the second timing
bar).> > From the daily chart you posted, there may be several
buy and sell points> between now and the target area of course. Thanks
for sharing this "equity"> trade though, one worth watching it would
appear!> Good luck and good trading> don ewers> >
----- Original Message -----> From: "Steve Karnish" <<A
href="mailto:kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>;
<<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>;>
<<A
href="mailto:Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 11:21 PM> Subject: [RT] Back in the oil
bidniz, please help me mr. president> > List,> I seldom
publish equity buy signals to the list. But, here's a play to>
ponder. I slapped on the fib retracements for a special three day,
weekend> treat. It's a real piece of "eye candy".>
> Buy and sell arrows are automatically placed by a Chande
Momentum> Oscillator, triggering signals, at symmetrical, equal
distances from a> center baseline.> > Anyone with decent
analytical software, should be able to recreate this> success with the
CMO, a good StoRSI, or reliable momentum oscillator of> there
choice. All it takes is a lot of research work.> > Happy
Holidaze,> > Steve Karnish, Financial DJ> Cedar Creek
Trading> <A
href="http://www.cedarcreektrading.com";>http://www.cedarcreektrading.com>
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