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Don,
To my spreadsheet is kind of a monster.
Holds Futures OHLC, NYSE Breadth,Closing tic, NH, NL, Calculates 5 day MOM
of close, Trin, 5 day sum of trin.
Typically I am only concerned about the last three
days, on a closing basis, and reletive high-low. The goal is not to get 50
to 100 hits, but more on the
order of 10 to 15, anymore is too wide. Then you
just... look to see what happened in the past. :) The key thing is that it
is doable. I think I have said that
if an 80% er comes up one pays very close
attention to it.
If anyone has the S&P Cash closes for the last
4 years in ascii, I'd love to have it..
Best Regares
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Roos
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 11:57 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] some thoughts on NASDAQ
today
Hi, Don. No, we don't use
the previous day's HL to determine direction, but yesterdays HL is
important as well as the day of week. Take a look at Gary Fritz's
indicator on day of week %. One could even develop a useful system we
call the "stupid system" that uses the day of week bias alone and a very large
stop to be profitable.
How do you do your analysis on the gap
down odds making?
Bob, you may still get your up day.
Like Haytham says, he does not regard anything before 10 eastern as being very
important in the overall trend. However, we seem to be oscillating
around the market's "steel pipe" 10d ma lately. It will certainly be
nice whenever we get a breakout of the low atr doldrums.
dr
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Thompson
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 10:01
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] some thoughts on
NASDAQ today
Don,
I have a penchant for plumbing the history, I
have never gotten into analasis of day of week. It always seemed to me
that the previous continum correlated more with the probabilitiy of what
might happen more than the day of the week. The query I did last night
showed a 14% chance of a higher close SnP500 if there was a gap down
open.
What you are saying, since you listed the
Friday statistic first, is that day of week is a prime factor in determining
direction for the day.
So, in analyzing for Day, do you also sort on
prevous day's action? Like if Wednesday is up Thursday is up, leads to
a 60% of a drop on Friday?
Best Regards,
Don Thompson
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Roos
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 3:28
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] some thoughts on
NASDAQ today
Haytham:
Thank you for the pictures and
continuing analysis.
I am wondering if your scenario is in
danger, however.
First of all, tomorrow is Friday, of
course, which is the worst day of the week by far with the spoos having a
-7.4% down for the year so far (intraday trading only, not counting gaps)
and the total of all days is -5.5% down. So, Friday has more than
all of the intraday downmove total for the year. The fact that we
have lower lows today versus yesterday in both the spx and the ndx is not
reasurring.
Sitting near the top of the wide
Keltner fib channel with atr near prior swing lows is not reasurring for
immediate new highs in the spoos. If the cluster of fib supports at
the 1280.6 March 8th high were to give away tomorrow morning, a
significant retracement could be seen as atr expansion to the downside
occurs. The fact that VIX sits at 23 on the daily corresponds rather
closely to the approximately 4 mo cycle of vix lows and swing
highs.
Just an alternative opinion. As
a daytrader, these kind of projections are only useful to me as a roadmap,
but as for the open tomorrow, I am looking to go
short.
Best regards,
Don
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A href="mailto:H.Albizem@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=H.Albizem@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Haytham Albizem
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Realtraders
Sent: Thursday, May 24, 2001 8:51
PM
Subject: [RT] some thoughts on
NASDAQ today
Some comments on the gif
pictures.
HaythamTo unsubscribe
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