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Hi, Don. No, we don't use
the previous day's HL to determine direction, but yesterdays HL is
important as well as the day of week. Take a look at Gary Fritz's
indicator on day of week %. One could even develop a useful system we call
the "stupid system" that uses the day of week bias alone and a very large stop
to be profitable.
How do you do your analysis on the gap down
odds making?
Bob, you may still get your up day.
Like Haytham says, he does not regard anything before 10 eastern as being very
important in the overall trend. However, we seem to be oscillating around
the market's "steel pipe" 10d ma lately. It will certainly be nice
whenever we get a breakout of the low atr doldrums.
dr
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Thompson
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 10:01 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] some thoughts on NASDAQ
today
Don,
I have a penchant for plumbing the history, I
have never gotten into analasis of day of week. It always seemed to me
that the previous continum correlated more with the probabilitiy of what might
happen more than the day of the week. The query I did last night showed
a 14% chance of a higher close SnP500 if there was a gap down
open.
What you are saying, since you listed the Friday
statistic first, is that day of week is a prime factor in determining
direction for the day.
So, in analyzing for Day, do you also sort on
prevous day's action? Like if Wednesday is up Thursday is up, leads to a
60% of a drop on Friday?
Best Regards,
Don Thompson
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Roos
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 3:28
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] some thoughts on
NASDAQ today
Haytham:
Thank you for the pictures and
continuing analysis.
I am wondering if your scenario is in
danger, however.
First of all, tomorrow is Friday, of
course, which is the worst day of the week by far with the spoos having a
-7.4% down for the year so far (intraday trading only, not counting gaps)
and the total of all days is -5.5% down. So, Friday has more than all
of the intraday downmove total for the year. The fact that we have
lower lows today versus yesterday in both the spx and the ndx is not
reasurring.
Sitting near the top of the wide
Keltner fib channel with atr near prior swing lows is not reasurring for
immediate new highs in the spoos. If the cluster of fib supports at
the 1280.6 March 8th high were to give away tomorrow morning, a significant
retracement could be seen as atr expansion to the downside occurs. The
fact that VIX sits at 23 on the daily corresponds rather closely to the
approximately 4 mo cycle of vix lows and swing highs.
Just an alternative opinion. As a
daytrader, these kind of projections are only useful to me as a roadmap, but
as for the open tomorrow, I am looking to go short.
Best regards,
Don
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A title=H.Albizem@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:H.Albizem@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>Haytham Albizem
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>Realtraders
Sent: Thursday, May 24, 2001 8:51
PM
Subject: [RT] some thoughts on NASDAQ
today
Some comments on the gif
pictures.
HaythamTo unsubscribe
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