|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Earl
-
<SPAN
class=120292502-11012001>
While
I agree with you that the pattern is too small to call it a h&s pattern, at
least as defined by E&M, the volume pattern that you discuss is not a good
argument only because volume can rise on the right shoulder from days between
the head and the right shoulder, as long as it is lower than at the head. For
that matter, the volume I show on my chart for 8-Jan was the lowest since the
high anyway to that point. It looks as if your charts show previous day's volume
beneath the current bar (see my chart attached). The low volume on the left
shoulder is at least partially because it was pre-Christmas (wasn't the 22nd a
shortened day?). Note also that volume properly increased as prices fell the
next day. The volume pattern looks even better in the benchmark 10Y futures
(though the left shoulder is still low).
<SPAN
class=120292502-11012001>
The
most incorrect thing about calling this a H&S is that it is no place near
being confirmed. The neckline is one of those ugly downward sloping ones. It
comes in tomorrow near 103:20. The measured move off the high will be about
2:14, so we will get the signal more than 1/2 to the target. Not a great
risk/reward. There are much better patterns and indicators that would have told
you to be short than this possible H&S.
<SPAN
class=120292502-11012001>
One
thing that I strongly believe in is that the requirements that E&M put on
patterns as far as length go are not useful. These patterns also show up, and
seem to be reliable, even on an intraday basis. Of course, as an Elliottician, I
think all patterns can work even down to very short time frames. It is a bias I
have and a cross that I have to bear.
<SPAN
class=120292502-11012001>
Steve
Poser
---Steven W. Poser, PresidentPoser Global Market
Strategies Inc.<A href="http://www.poserglobal.com/";
target=_blank>http://www.poserglobal.comswp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxTel:
201-995-0845Fax: 201-995-0846
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Earl Adamy
[mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Wednesday, January 10, 2001 9:09
PMTo: RealTradersSubject: Re: [RT] H&S on the
Bonds
I've previously reminded TBT of the required
qualifications for a H&S with E&M and Curtis Arnold references to
proper identification of H&S patterns but he keeps throwing these things
up as H&S. For the benefit of new traders on the list who pickup such
misinformation and try to use it to their financial peril, I have attached a
GIF which shows what disqualifies this as a H&S. The idea is simple -
high volume on the rally into the left should indicates buying while low
volume on the rally into the right shoulder indicates lack of
buying. Finally, the pattern here is much too abbreviated (too few
bars) to qualify as a H&S.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, January 10, 2001 3:45
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] H&S on the
Bonds
Bill,
I noticed that too, but as another astute investor (Earl) saw the
volume on the right shoulder is larger than on the left, so be careful about
this "topping pattern" and getting too bearish. Could just be a minor
wave 4 of big wave 3 (not a big wave 4) in a continuation pattern? Minor 4's
screw more trades up, I have learned to respect them (Vs predicting a
big wave 4).
don ewersTo
unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
eGroups Sponsor
Click here to Win a 2001 Acura MDX
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
Attachment:
Description: "usd.gif"
|