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We cannot reasonably expect a one-to-one correlation between 1960 and 2000,
so the implications of the attachment should not be taken too literally.
Still, it will be interesting to see how this iteration of the end of a 40
year cycle plays out.
We are near the end of theoretical 20 and 40 year cycles (2002) which should
exert downward pressure on prices. We are at the apex of a theoretical 4
year cycle which should also exert downward pressure on prices. However, we
are near the beginning of a 2 year cycle which should exert an upward
pressure on prices.
The 1960-62 cycle lifted the DJIA to a new high then dumped it below the
1960 low. I assume 2001 will see an attempt to retest the current high of
this 20/40 year cycle prior to descending to the eventual low.
-Stan
-----Original Message-----
From: Carl Vanhaesendonck [mailto:carl.vanhaesendonck@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, November 30, 2000 5:13 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Re: re:60 yr cycle & sentiment + Pattern correlation
I must be very dense also but...do not see any pattern correlation
between the 1940-41 chart and actual DJ pattern...
This said, I can agree that actual DJIA chart, plotted in weekly
bars, shows some vague H&S pattern since early 1999. As it shows a
wonderful and dangerous Diamond Pattern, which has since then failed
on both sides. Which let us with a longe and large (9600-11900)
trading range of nearly 2 years. As we know, trading range appearing
after a long run up (or down) is rather a continuation pattern.
I would therefore rather expect DJIA to break to the upside, with a
target above 14000 pts.
And if you stick with the H&S pattern, H&S failures (price do not
cross the neck line but do the opposite and cross the last "Shoulder"
pivot) also generate strong move.
Exciting !
Carl
--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx, SLAWEKP@xxxx wrote:
> You right this chart represents end of 1940 & Jan 1941,
> basically You subtract 60 yrs from today's date.
> this chart Told me to be out of the market by end of march 2000,
> buy on may 16th 2000, so far showed good hi/low rotation
> & Feb 8th (+/- 4days) 2001 as a buying point after severe decline
from Jan
> 10th 2001 (presidential election gridlock???) Its confirmed by
other methods
> as very important date
>
> slawek
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Attachment:
Description: "DJIA_40.gif"
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