Re: [RT] Gann Fan on the Bonds

["t-bondtrader" <t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Charles,
 
Many thanks for taking all the trouble for your 
post.   I do appreciate that it is a complex thing, this EW business, 
as this statement of yours (out of context) proves;
 
There is also the issue of wave degree -- a Minor 
wave C down may be part of an Intermediate wave 4 down that is part of the 5 
wave sequence of Primay 3 Up.
 
...and I certainly agree that it all makes the head 
spin!   Still, that is no reason to give up if the concept will 
deliver.  As you know, I day trade and my interest in EW is simply one of 
education, with a possible application for the occasional foray into longer term 
trades with options - but I only look at the latter as a bit of extra fun, from 
the routine of day trading.
 
For me, trading with support and resistance in the 
market is something that is tangible.   It has happened and has an 
effect.  There is no theory about it.  It is factual.  I can lock 
onto that.   All that I need after that is to know what sort of price 
action and pattern the market is going to make as it gets to a particular level, 
and what sort of target if offers and what sort of risk/reward I have to 
consider to come out on top more often than not.   But, realistically 
(for me and my emotions), I can only do that on short time frames and within a 
day, on a particular type of market, etc, etc...
 
However, EW does bug me because it so clearly works 
with hindsight (and obviously works with foresight for good people like 
yourself).  The Gann Fan on the attached Gif has worked quite well on the 
December contract and the line is now being challenged by the market, so it will 
be interesting to see what happens.   But a line is a line, if it is 
not linked directly to orders in the market, and that doesn't give me 
confidence!
 
Anyway, we could go on and it is very 
intersting, but thank you for taking the time and the trouble to 
respond.   I'll get there in the end - at least in terms of 
understanding, if not trading...
 
Have a good weekend
 
Bill
 
 
 
 
 
Bill Eykyn<A 
href="mailto:t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxx<A 
href="http://www.t-bondtrader.com";>www.t-bondtrader.com"Learn to read 
the tape"
 
 
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  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
  c_r@xxxxxxxxx 
  To: <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx ; <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx 
  Sent: Friday, November 03, 2000 6:55 
  PM
  Subject: Re: [RT] Gann Fan on the 
  Bonds
  Bill,Understand that my comment about multiple 
  interpretations was somewhat facetious, although I do believe strongly in 
  keeping alternate counts.  I think most of us who use EWave would agree 
  when we see an impulse wave 3--"a wonder to behold" as Mr. Elliott said. 
  Interpretive difficulties are usually in the corrective phases or at the 
  beginning and end of waves. Once corrections or wave completions are 
  identified, wave theory calls for projections / retracements based on fib 
  ratios.  Establishing a tradeplan and money management based on these 
  depends on your confidence in the count.  Again, most of us probably use 
  other indicators to confirm the resupmtion or termination of a move.  
  Robert Miner at Dynamic Trading and Tom Joseph at Trading Techniques (Advanced 
  GET) have done a lot on this.  (And I must see what Mr. Poser's favorite 
  Elliotician has to say!) There is also the issue of wave degree -- a 
  Minor wave C down may be part of an Intermediate wave 4 down that is part of 
  the 5 wave sequence of Primay 3 Up. Sometimes this is useful; sometimes it 
  makes my head spin. Elliott developed his theory for the broad market 
  using, I believe, daily data.  Shorter time frames and derivative 
  instruments subject to arbitrage make wave interpretation more difficult, 
  something Steven Poser alluded to last night.  I believe some members of 
  the list have posted charts from Advanced GET intraday.  Perhaps they 
  could give insight on intraday EWave.  That said, some years ago when I 
  subscribed to Mr. Prechter's service I kept an hourly chart of the DJIA.  
  Wave counts and subsequent projections could be made at that time frame.  
  In fact, I credit that work for allowing me to dodge the bullet in 
  '87.Ref being back to square one--if wave 4 overlaps wave 1, then it 
  is not an impulse wave but part of a corrective sequence such a Jeff 
  described.  That's useful information in itself.All old history 
  on your time frame.HTH,Charles MarchandAt 10:56 AM 
  11/3/00 +0000, t-bondtrader wrote:
  
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