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Return-path: Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
From: Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
Full-name: Jpilleafe
Message-ID: <0.b0a06fed.2593cb1b@xxxxxxx>
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 13:59:39 EST
Subject: Re: [RT] Fwd: Re: Dilemma
To: HBernst963@xxxxxxx
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In a message dated 12/23/99 10:33:35 AM Pacific Standard Time,
HBernst963@xxxxxxx writes:
<< The public is very bullish. I was at a Christmas party last night in a
Washington DC suburb and people are fat and happy. They are buy and hold,
long term bullish and convinced that if the market goes down it will come
back because it always has, etc.
Some are moving their stock funds now from index funds, since the S&P 500
has
underperformed the NASDAQ, to agressive growth funds or they are just buying
some of these Tech stocks such as CMGI, Qualcom, DELL. Valuation means
nothing to them because the market seems to always go up.
Go figure,
Howard
>>
I don't use dice,..but I am patient. About 60% of the gains I acheive are
the result of what I chose to refer to as "overseas follow through",...
the rest from timing the S&P500. I may be on the sidelines for a week or so
before a higher probability situation exists,...but eventually it will
exist,..and then I will take a position.
Big picture though,..I have this concern that we are the later stages of a
multi-year topping process. You are right,..it never ends the same way,..and
looking around us,..this time appears truly different from anything we have
ever seen before. I was in southern Ohio recently,...a fairly conservative
part of the state,...mostly agricultural,...blue collar,..etc. and nothing
but bill boards along the road for daytrading,..financial investments,...etc.
It really made an impressin on me. Turn on any educational channel in the
evening,...History channel.... TLC, ...Discovery, ..weather channel,..etc.
and all you see are financial services commercials targetting the baby
boomers,....discount trading,...Fidelity,...mutual funds,..etc. Look through
any periodical magazine at the library and it's nothing but getting long the
stock market,..etc. Same old story,..these things have existed for
years,..but overall I am thinking we are getting closer to the end of this
liquidity driven bubble.
Longer term I am favorably biased toward commodities,....the CRB index in
particular,..as if we are in an expanding global economy,.."things" should be
starting to increase in price,...and many commodites are little changed from
their 1998 Asian Crisis valuation levels....some still very much
underbelieved, so to me,...physical things are becoming relatively more
attractive than "paper assets". Never easy,...but when you look back ove
rthe past ten years,..etc. we certainly have been fortunate to have been
working in these markets during the "best of times"....
Merry Christmas,...keep in touch,...JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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