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The rally from Wednesday's low gave clear appearance of ABC corrective
structure on 30 minute chart and has now broken support at 9104. We have
yet another reversal day. A break of the 25Oct PL at 9023 will suggest
that price will test next support at 89-19 and quite possibly 88-05.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, December 22, 1999 6:11 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Treasury Bonds
> Generally, the compelling case for bonds is negative when I look at
> futures and mutual fund corporates. Support on the monthly channel
from
> 1981 is 88-16 and the overall structure suggests to me that support
will
> fail within the next 3-6 months. The Nov rally was the first
correction
> to the decline which began Oct98 and it lasted only 4 weeks, not long
> enough to be considered a convincing w.4 correction, thus the current
> decline is probably not a final w.5. More likely scenario, is that w.4
> began 25Oct and we may be completing a w.B (simple 3 wave structure)
> decline. Daily chart shows pretty fair support right in here between
> 91-00 to 90-23. If it holds in here we will likely see a rally to
92-93
> area. Rally above the 93 area would suggest a w.C rally and prices
> should proceed to 96-100 before another impulsive decline begins.
> Failure to hold here or a rally failure around the 93 area would
> indicate that an impulsive decline, either an extended w.3 or final
w.5
> is already underway. As always, any such analysis is one of
> probabilities rather than certainties.
>
> Bonds have been very sloppy (no buyers) and open interest has been
> declining steadily since mid-November suggesting light interest in
> carrying over Y2K. Yesterday was an outside day which attempted an
> upside reversal, failed badly, and closed at the lows. The daily chart
> would require a 38+ tick rally today (Wed) to reverse convincingly.
AGet
> is showing an MOB support structure here in time and price, so I'm
> watching to see if we can consolidate (perhaps an inside day or two)
and
> then rally. Overall bonds are very dicey. From my perspective, anyone
> with a horizon longer than a few hours or days should probably be
> positioned per the weekly and monthly trend. Under my investing hat,
my
> bond fund positions are pared to minimum. Under my futures trading
hat,
> I am reluctant to initiate fresh shorts at this level and will be
> watching to see if there is enough support here to launch a rally.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Dr. John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, December 21, 1999 10:29 PM
> Subject: [RT] Treasury Bonds
>
>
> > To T-Bond Afficionados:
> >
> > Need some insight as to potential bond price movement [direction and
> range]
> > over the next 30 days as you see it.Just looking for some
> understanding
> > since some of the factors I used to look at do not seem to matter
any
> more.
> >
> > Thanks for any info,
> >
> > John
> > ______________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
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