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Of course there will be many glitches breakdowns disruptions etc. So what???
There are many glitches breakdowns and disruptions everyday, and nobody notices.
Well there might be more this time, causing greater disruptions, so what?
Will the world stop being? Will the sun stop rising in the west? It's all in the
heads. The fear of things is ALWAYS greater than the thing itself. When deep in
shit, you don't have time to be afraid, you act. That's what will be this time
as well. People will act. Plus there is no risk of this happening a second time,
so people will be really relieved, whatever happens.
- At worse there will be major nuisances, but people will just work to resume
normal business, and the whole thing will be over. That's why so many bought so
many computers recently.
- At best, nothing much will happen, and we will have a small recessionary
effect as people will live on their stockpiles first before resuming normal
business...
My 3 cents
aloof Gwenn
JW wrote:
> Bill Ulrich is a recognized expert on Y2K and writes a regular column in
> Computerworld on the issue. He has been involved in the business since at
> least 1993 and has also written a couple of books on the subject.
>
> IMO, there is too much complacency and acceptance that there will not be any
> major problems at all. Should the consensus be wrong, it will certainly
> throw a wrench into the potential of the anticipated "January effect".
>
> JW
>
> http://www.computerworld.com/home/print.nsf/all/991129CE6A
>
> Y2K's close; we're still not ready
>
> By WIlliam Ulrich
> 11/29/99 Industry association and government spokesmen have proclaimed the
> Y2K problem dead.
>
> People believe this because they ignore published status reports to the
> contrary, see no personal connection to the problem and listen to pundits
> while doing little research for themselves.
>
> But when problems emerge, companies and governments will take the brunt of
> the criticism. Assessing the reality of the situation will allow
> organizations to respond to the public relations challenges ahead. Reality
> is different from what the media tell us.
>
> In September, Cap Gemini America, an information technology consulting firm
> in New York, found that 44% of major companies wouldn't have their
> mission-critical systems compliant by January. A CIO magazine poll found
> that 81% of large companies weren't yet finished and that half the companies
> surveyed had no contingency plans. A National Federation of Independent
> Business study found that 40% of small businesses had done nothing about
> Y2K.
>
> Where progress has been made, work completed to date remains in question.
> According to independent validation and verification (IV&V) studies by SEEC
> Inc. in Pittsburgh, the average mainframe or midrange system contains 510
> date-related errors after remediation. A second study in February by
> Reasoning Inc. in Mountain View, Calif., found between 100 and 1,000 bugs in
> similar samplings. An unrelated study by SriSoft Corp. in Diamond Bar,
> Calif., in October discovered that testing catches 30% of Y2K bugs, while
> IV&V uncovers another 40% to 45%. This leaves 25% of the remaining bugs in a
> best-case scenario.
>
> Statistics drawn from government hearings and Web sites paint a more
> detailed picture. Only 13.5% of small and midsize chemical and petroleum
> firms have completed Y2K preparations. The Food and Drug Administration said
> 4,053 high-risk biomedical devices remain noncompliant. More than half of
> all health care providers won't be ready. And 70% of schools are unprepared.
>
> According to calculations found in a report by researcher Warren Bone at New
> York-based Westergaard.com Inc.'s Web site (www.wbn.com/y2ktimebomb/), only
> 75% of federal mission-critical systems will be finished by January, and the
> status of nonmission-critical systems remains unclear. Other reports found
> 13 states at risk for failures in federal benefit programs, 25% of U.S.
> counties with no Y2K plan, 63% of 911 call centers unprepared and Medicare
> provider payments facing delays.
>
> Even best-case scenarios are imperfect. The Social Security Administration
> (SSA) began year 2000 efforts in 1989. In July, according to the Information
> Systems Accounting & Information Management Division, SSA found 1,565 year
> 2000 errors in mission-critical systems. Only 44% of these had been fixed as
> of October. SSA is still checking data and finalizing contingency plans.
>
> What does this mean to consumers? In statements made in early November to
> CBS News, the State Department inspector general said, "80 countries are at
> moderate to high risk, and there will be failures at every economic level,
> in every region of the world." Nick Gogerty, an analyst at London-based
> International Monitoring, predicted in October that Y2K would lead to $1.1
> trillion in damages worldwide, not including those from litigation and
> insurance costs. These costs, along with many inconveniences, will affect us
> next year.
>
> Why is the government telling us that most industries are 100% Y2K-compliant
> when bug-free systems are a myth? The answer is that the government and
> selected industries don't want people to panic. But when things go wrong,
> people will demand answers.
>
> What can organizations do when problems strike? First, consider that 80% of
> your customers expect no year 2000 problems at all. Second, don't believe
> your own industry hype about 100% compliance. Third, be polite and let them
> know we are all in this together -- for the long haul.
>
> Most important, when future large-scale challenges arise, consider your
> industry's posture. The unrealistic Y2K performance expectations set by
> industry associations are unachievable. Finally, see if any of those
> high-priced public relations directors want to work your customer hot line
> in January. They may learn something about manipulating perceptions about
> matters they barely understand.
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