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I think what "isn't right" is the impeachment proceedings. The dollar has
been dropping ever since the the prospects for a censure deal began to dim.
Recent history shows that the smart money perceives any weakness in the
dollar to represent a flight from US investments. The strong bullish
momentum in bonds got stopped in its tracks as soon as the dollar turned
south.
Stewart is right that the recent fundamental info for bonds has been very
bullish. Market fear can win in the short run, but fundamentals will always
win in the long run. I think all this noise is just setting up a more
powerful bull move in bonds as soon as the impeachment proceedings are
resolved one way or another.
Of course, when that will be is anyone's guess...
Bruce
-----Original Message-----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, December 15, 1998 10:14 AM
Subject: Re: MKT Equities and Bonds looking down
>Sure is. You've been well out front on this one, it only remains to be seen
>how it all shakes out. I am, however taking the bond situation seriously
>enough to shift investment positions into the shorter end of the yield
>curve. Long term I still think rates may head down but something just isn't
>right here and I'm not going to fight it.
>
>Earl
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Stewart Taylor <staylor@xxxxxxx>
>To: eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>; RealTraders Discussion Group
><realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Tuesday, December 15, 1998 7:47 AM
>Subject: Re: MKT Equities and Bonds looking down
>
>
>>Bonds haven't reacted very well to a ton of promising fundamental junk...
>>good numbers, huge weakness in the CRB index and industrial materials
>>(Crude) and much weaker shares. I have seldom made a lot of money bucking
>>the commodities trend when trading bonds so I am having a lot of trouble
>>taking more than swing or trading turn shorts, but the poor reaction to
>>very good news is a clear problem.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>Stewart Taylor
>>Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
>>Voice: 501-219-9774
>>Fax: 501-228-0963
>>E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
>>Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
>
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