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</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Dec 03 15:19:55 1998
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From: "Peter Gibson" <Peter_Gibson@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: The Beans
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Interesting post - I'm interested in your
experience in trading Canola - which I think is traded only in Winnipeg.
How are fills and liquidity compared to US markets? What are other
differences in how canola trades vs. US grains? </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Anthony Denis Cattani <<A
href="mailto:dcattani@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>dcattani@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>RealTraders Discussion Group <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>December 3, 1998 2:11 PM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Fw: The Beans<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Sent this message last night but as I had
not updated my email address it did not go through....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Anthony Denis Cattani <<A
href="mailto:dcattani@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>dcattani@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>Realtraders <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>02 December, 1998 10:14 PM<BR><B>Subject: </B>The
Beans<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Hi there All:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Although I read a lot of the posts to this
list, I very seldom have a chance to contribute. I see there was a post this
a.m. about the bean market.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>As an oilseed trader, I would like to add my
two cents.....maybe three...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>This rally in the oilseeds...from the
bottom....was in part engineered by the funds. Shortly after the beans
bottomed, a very large European fund established a very large soybean
position that seemed to start the market off into rally mode. Along the way
the North American fund traders have been in and out of the market a couple
of times. As I trade mainly Canola, and since it is a very commercial
market, I will refer to it's chart. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The first leg up was bought, and driven
heavily by the funds. The correction from this move was swift and rapid and
panicked most of the longs into selling near the lows with a
loss.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The second leg up saw a little less fund
involvement and most of the longs went into very strong hands. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The third leg up again saw heavy fund buying
with large additions to the longs. Most of these positions were bought
aggressively.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Then came the Thanksgiving Holiday. Richard
Denis' first love is beans. Coming off a very profitable yen position where
it is felt he made close to 100 mill., it is my opinion that he was back to
his old tricks by buying heavily in the bean market the day after
Thanksgiving. The set up was perfect. A lot of the trade was away, the
market was thin, the stops were waiting. Good old shoot from the hip trading
can still work, and here we are, moving on up.....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Will it hold? My guess is maybe for the very
short term, maybe if the weather in South America cooperates. In the mid to
longer term, no. The fundamentals are not there. The weekly charts, at least
in Canola will break the accelerating support line next week. If the Canola
market, which is already overpriced, starts to break, it will take the bean
oil, and then the beans with it. Oh, since most of you do not watch the
canola market, it quite often leads the beans. Why, because it's a
commercial market, without the extra 'noise' that the bean trade
has.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It is way to early for a weather market to develop in S.
America. If it stays dry the market will still be vulnerable to manipulation
to the upside by the funds. But, they are playing a dangerous game. The
first sign of a good general rain and look out below. As an added fact,
isn't it interesting that for the past week we have not been able to get
reliable weather reports out of Brazil? Just a coincidence you
say......</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The long term monthly charts of Canola still point to one
more leg down. In probability it will be a nice sized drop of 50 to 80
dollars. I am expecting this to begin early next year. The only thing that
will negate the scenario is major weather problems in S. America. The bean
oil and the beans will follow. IF and WHEN that leg in complete, then we
will be in a very long buy and hold situation. Starting in late 1999 or
early 2000 inflation will start to slowly creep back in. This will be the
ride that most of us have waited for. It will rival the commodities run of
the seventies. I expect beans in the high upper teens, crude oil in the 50
to 80 dollar area, and God forbid, our mail boxes flooded with hundreds of
letters about why we should all buy gold. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>That is the way that I see it.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Disclaimer: These are my own opinions, and are not put
forward to suggest or recommend positions in any of the markets
mentioned</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>As a post script.....I know that this has been brought up
many times in the past, but I am looking for a reliable end of day data
provider. I am adding software and I do not want to interfere with my on
line systems. I have checked out most of the providers and am still in a
fog. The best deal I came across was the options software that included a
full year of data with the software for $595.00 </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Any and all suggestions will be appreciated. I used to
download TechTools, but since they changed their format I find the set up
not my liking.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Profitable trading all.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Anthony Denis Cattani.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Dec 03 15:36:46 1998
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To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: E-Mini
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In a message dated 12/3/98 8:50:10 AM Central Standard Time,
comfut@xxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
<<
For all of you in favor of all electronic trading........The e-mini system
is down.....the minds at the cme are trying to figure out what to do
next.............
Beautiful for those that need to exit a position............
Maybe open outcry is here to stay.....don't sell those seats, yet........
Tom
>>
It was very amusing for the E-mini traders on the open today. I guess at the
ding of the bell, the E-mini pooped out. They made an announcement to the pit
and a bunch just laughed. I guess they are adding a bunch of memory to the
system right know to handle more "hits per second." There may be even some
individuals slowing down the system deliberately. Anyway it is the Euros which
run the CME (based on revenue), along of course with the brokers. If some
system were to take the Euros away from us, then good bye exchange. What they
need to do in the mini is make an internet web interface so you can trade
through the Merc on the computer. Or hey sell electronic
memberships....hmmmmmmmmm look at the volume of the mini. INCREDIBLE. Now just
for a moment think what would happen if we had MORE price points (maybe 00,
.20, .40, .60, .80, 00 ......or maybe just .10 like the big) and you were able
to trade larger. The contract would explode. THE mini will work out fine in
the future, but the brokers that run the exchanges obviously do not want it.
Once the mini is working faster and more efficiently, maybe like the new Eurex
or Liffe's Connect, the contract and electronic trading will become the
dominant trading platform.
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