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detomps@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
In a message dated 97-08-16 09:55:38 EDT, you write:
<< I would like to get more EW on since, I like other views..... I
personally like chat and chart like this example. >>
Good. Attached is a "follow up" to the Elliott chart of yesterday.
The scenario of an ABC suggested yesterday (letters now bracketed) was most
probably incorrect. We broke below the 7800 level (trash can time), and
confirmed the scenario as faulty as the white trendline was broken. The
length of bracketed (C) is now greater than 2.618 of A, and thereby all but
eliminating that count as feasible in my view. The upper trendline was never
approached, preventing any entry to the upside, and the break of 7800 forced
me to cash.
The descent from 8/7 has now been labeled in white with the probable
scenarios. I've found price action that remains between parallel lines, is
almost always corrective. If we stay between those red channel lines, then
the corrective ABC in white is most likely correct. This implies a "zigzag"
from 8/7, will be confirmed by staying above the lower red line, and will
complete with a good thrust through the upper red trendline running from 8/7
to the open on 8/15. If we drop quickly on Monday, through the lower line,
then the impulse scenario, 1,2,3 etc. gains in probability.
My "guess" is that we will hold support somewhere in the area we are in now
(give or take 75 to 100 points). Not shown as a trendline, but the apex of
the triangle back on 7/2 should have some influence also. A 1.618 extension
of the 8/7 - 8/8 drop, moved to the 8/12 high gives 7600 as possible support.
This is also the low of that Dow triangle back in late June. From the 6/4
low on the S&P 500, we have retraced 50%, and secondary trend following
indicators like TRIN (Arms) RSI and Stochastic on the Dow are well into
oversold. I know the last three carry little weight, but they always make me
feel good when I need them to confirm a point of view.
So, my guess is 7600 stands a good chance of being a bottom, but I'm a bad
guesser. Critical points for market action from me are 7600 on the downside,
and a "good" break of that descending upper red trendline for upside entry.
Peter
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