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<P><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Henry Malone Williams <malonew@xxxxxxxxxx><BR><B>To: </B>Lee Clayton,
D.D.S. <dds2@xxxxxxxxxx><BR><B>Cc: </B>Alvin Bailey
<arbailey@xxxxxxxxxx>; Billy Bell <BillBell@xxxxxxxxxx>; David
Graser <david@xxxxxxxxxx>; George Johnson <gjohnson@xxxxxxxxxx>; Guy
Willis <drillbit@xxxxxxx>; Kim Turley <ktturley@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Mike
Walker <mike18@xxxxxxxxxxx>; Richard Hatley <rhatley@xxxxxxxxxx>;
Tom Baugh <LLYS27A@xxxxxxxxxxx><BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: Stroll Through the
Markets on 8/10/97 with AIQ<BR><BR></P></FONT>
<P><FONT color=#000000 face="Britannic Bold" size><B><BR><FONT color=#ff0000>The
Candlestick Perspective<BR><FONT color=#000000><BR>The Dow generated an Evening
Star on 3/12/97 at 6878. <BR>A Dark Cloud Cover on 3/18/97 then again on 3/25/97
at 6391.<BR><BR>The DOW fell to a low of 6341 on 4/11/97 after these
signals.<BR><BR>A Dark Cloud Cover was generated on 7/31/97 at 8222; then again
on 8/07/97 with the DOW falling to 8188 the next day.<BR><BR>These multiple sell
signals are significant and I don't find support till 7884.<BR>Candlesticks are
excellent short term indicators and these types of patterns are very reliable.
In conjunction with a sell ER signal, I am concerned.<BR><BR><BR><FONT
color=#ff0000>Thoughts<BR><FONT color=#000000><BR>I agree with Lee that this
correction could be deep. I note that the TV experts are minimizing the
downfall, but I am concerned that even KO can't met the rising earnings
demand.<BR><BR>I suppose that I will have to sell some positions to raise cash
for the great buys to
follow.<BR><BR>Malone<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>> From: Lee Clayton,
D.D.S. <<FONT color=#0000ff><U>dds2@xxxxxxxxxx</U><FONT
color=#000000>><BR>> To: Tom Baugh <<FONT
color=#0000ff><U>LLYS27A@xxxxxxxxxxx</U><FONT color=#000000>>; Sidney Berger
<<FONT color=#0000ff><U>sberger@xxxxxxxxx</U><FONT color=#000000>>; Mike
Walker <<FONT color=#0000ff><U>mike18@xxxxxxxxxxx</U><FONT
color=#000000>>; Mike Davis <<FONT
color=#0000ff><U>mdavis@xxxxxxxxxx</U><FONT color=#000000>>; Malone Williams
<<FONT color=#0000ff><U>malonew@xxxxxxxxxx</U><FONT color=#000000>>; Larry
Campbell, D.D.S. <<FONT color=#0000ff><U>lcampbel@xxxxxxxxxx</U><FONT
color=#000000>>; Kris Paddock <<FONT
color=#0000ff><U>kberry@xxxxxxxxxx</U><FONT color=#000000>>; Guy Stone
<<FONT color=#0000ff><U>gstone@xxxxxxxxxxxx</U><FONT color=#000000>>;
George Johnson <<FONT color=#0000ff><U>gjohnson@xxxxxxxxxx</U><FONT
color=#000000>>; Dave Graser <<FONT
color=#0000ff><U>david@xxxxxxxxxx</U><FONT color=#000000>>; Billie Bell
<<FONT color=#0000ff><U>BillBell@xxxxxxxxxx</U><FONT color=#000000>>;
Alvin Bailey <<FONT color=#0000ff><U>arbailey@xxxxxxxxxx</U><FONT
color=#000000>>; Nicholas Williams <<FONT
color=#0000ff><U>nicspic@xxxxxxxx</U><FONT color=#000000>>; Real Traders
<<FONT color=#0000ff><U>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</U><FONT
color=#000000>><BR>> Subject: Stroll Through the Markets on 8/10/97 with
AIQ<BR>> Date: Sunday, August 10, 1997 5:03 PM<BR>> <BR>> AIQ gave a
BUY signal on 7-30-97 and Denison AIQ'ers will remember my<BR>> cautionary
note after that BUY siganal. The WAL (stocks with confirmed<BR>>
signals) was 43-57 (neutral) and the US (Unconfirmed Signals) was bearish
at<BR>> 10-90. This came at the top of the trading bands and I said to
be cautious<BR>> here adding new money as this BUY signal did not come with a
lot of power<BR>> behind it. At the close on Friday 8-8-97 AIQ
issued a SELL signal of 2-98.<BR>> The WAL and US ARE significant here.
WAL is extremely bearish at 5-95 and<BR>> US is bullish at 90-10.
It is not uncommon to see a BUY signal at the top<BR>> followed by a
few days by a SELL signal. Look back a ways and you will see<BR>> a BUY
on 3-7-97 and a SELL several days later on 3-13-97. Look what type
of<BR>> market action followed that SELL signal!!!!!! My personal
opinion is that<BR>> we are in for a very rocky time over the next few days
but the sell off will<BR>> probably be fast and viscious but quickly dealth
wth and reversed due to the<BR>> already large US number. Now is the
time to raise cash and hold on and buy<BR>> back in later.
Looking at the S&P500 and DOW charts the MACD has
crossed<BR>> and given a sell signal, the phase indicator is headed down,
there was a<BR>> sell signal on the Stocastics about two days ago and both
averages have<BR>> broken their 28d ESA. Advance Decline Indicator has
been heading south for<BR>> a couple of weeks and the hi/lo index has stalled
out but not really started<BR>> down.<BR>> <BR>> Markets have bounced
off the upper Bollinger band and have now closed below<BR>> their 20ma.
John Murphy on CNBC has been pointing this out for a week.<BR>>
Usually this is cause for concern plus the seasonal factor of August not<BR>>
being a kind month for the markets weighs heavily. Cash will be KING
here<BR>> to use to buy back in at lower levels.<BR>> <BR>> <BR>>
<BR>> Lee<BR>>
</P></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></B></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Aug 10 22:54:14 1997
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Date: Sun, 10 Aug 1997 22:14:59 -0700
Reply-To: marcelom@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: Marcelo Martinez <marcelom@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: REALTRADERS digest 507
References: <Chameleon.970811084522.ramon@>
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ramon@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
>
> Hi Kelly
>
> =======================================================
> On Fri, 08 Aug 1997 12:37:47 -0700 Troy Kelley wrote:
> >Trading is hard...
> >
> >I have had 5 losses in a row over the past few days.
> >
> >How does one stay in this buisness?
> >
> >Troy
> =======================================================
>
> Yes trading is not easy but it is simple. It's simple
> because there are specific rules that must be
> followed if we, as traders, are to succeed. Hard because
> few traders apply the rules consistently enough.
>
> 5 losses in a row is not uncommon if you are experiencing
> a drawdown period. Last year I was in the red for 9 months
> and experienced a max drawdown of 28% before I turned it
> around at the end of the year.
>
> The key to survival is effective money management. I believe
> that as a general rule no more than 2% of your capital
> should be risked in any one trade. This assumes your trading
> plan has at least a 10% edge and that it suits your personality.
>
> If your plan does not have an edge, then money management
> will not help. In this case all effective money management will
> do is help you lose money more slowly.
>
> regards
>
> ray
>
> -------------------------------------
> Name: ray barros
> Tel : 61 2 9267 3470
> Fax : 61 2 9267 3478
> 101/25 Market Street
> Sydney NSW 2000
> Australia
> E-mail: ramon@xxxxxxxxx
> Date: 08/11/97
> Time: 08:35:08
>
> This message was sent by Chameleon
> -------------------------------------
I have quit cold for a few months to analyse what I did wrong in a
losing streak.
You would be surprised at what you can come up with. If you
look at it as a learning experience , maybe you can turn it
into an advantage in the future
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