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Stroll Through the Markets on 8/10/97 with AIQ


  • To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Subject: Stroll Through the Markets on 8/10/97 with AIQ
  • From: "Lee Clayton, D.D.S." <dds2@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Sun, 10 Aug 1997 15:01:15 -0700 (PDT)

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AIQ gave a BUY signal on 7-30-97 and Denison AIQ'ers will remember my
cautionary note after that BUY siganal.  The WAL (stocks with confirmed
signals) was 43-57 (neutral) and the US (Unconfirmed Signals) was bearish at
10-90.  This came at the top of the trading bands and I said to be cautious
here adding new money as this BUY signal did not come with a lot of power
behind it.   At the close on Friday 8-8-97 AIQ issued a SELL signal of 2-98.
The WAL and US ARE significant here.  WAL is extremely bearish at 5-95 and
US is bullish at 90-10.  It is not uncommon to see a BUY signal at the top
followed by a few days by a SELL signal.  Look back a ways and you will see
a BUY on 3-7-97 and a SELL several days later on 3-13-97.  Look what type of
market action followed that SELL signal!!!!!!  My personal opinion is that
we are in for a very rocky time over the next few days but the sell off will
probably be fast and viscious but quickly dealth wth and reversed due to the
already large US number.  Now is the time to raise cash and hold on and buy
back in later.   Looking at the S&P500 and DOW charts the MACD has crossed
and given a sell signal, the phase indicator is headed down, there was a
sell signal on the Stocastics about two days ago and both averages have
broken their 28d ESA.  Advance Decline Indicator has been heading south for
a couple of weeks and the hi/lo index has stalled out but not really started
down.

Markets have bounced off the upper Bollinger band and have now closed below
their 20ma.  John Murphy on CNBC has been pointing this out for  a week.
Usually this is cause for concern plus the seasonal factor of August not
being a kind month for the markets weighs heavily.  Cash will be KING here
to use to buy back in at lower levels.



Lee