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Re: Re[2]: puzzling probability and roulette a la Mark Brown



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Ernie asked:
> I struggle with this issue,  That is, should I try to out guess my
> system or not?  Do I know better than what the system is telling
> me, (the system that I spent many many man-hours developing)?!? 

When I first started trading, I'd developed a simple but profitable 
system.  But I constantly out-guessed it and over-ruled it because of 
the "stupid" entries it made.  I *knew* how simple-minded it was -- 
I'd written it, after all -- and I knew I could do better.

So I lost my shirt, while the system continued to crank out profits.

Once I swallowed my pride and started following my system, I started 
making money, and I've never really looked back.  There have been 
some challenging stretches, but as long as I apply my brainpower to 
developing systems instead of calling trades, I do OK.

I consider the day I resolved to follow my system, and trade my plan, 
my beginning as a professional trader.

Gary