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: Yet when I asked him what the odds of one color
: coming up, say, 5 times in a row, he said that the chance of that
happening
: was about 3% (.5 * .5 * .5 * .5 * .5).
:
: Now in my mind, these two different probabilities are measuring the *same
: event*. So how, on the one hand, can my probability of winning be only
50%,
: and on the other hand, just 3%?
The 'probability' of getting red instead of black is 50% / 50% or .5. The
'expectation' of the event of getting 5 colors in a row is .5*.5*.5*.5*.5.
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