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Philip:
I am certain no one would claim this was particularly
statistically important or relevant. I'd classify this as
anecdotal--and keep it in mind when I am trading the current
copper markets--Copper is in a very prolonged down trend and
has had very nice corrections after wide sell-offs,
sandwiched between what I call 'downward sloping chop.' The
trick to trading copper since the middle of this past
summer, is to sell a nice rally, and then leg in and out of
the downward sloping chop. If you get caught without a short
position because of a steep sell off occurs after you take
profits, simply have patience and wait for a nice sharp
rally. Perhaps the market is now set up for a re-test of the
low-to mid 70's?
Best,
Tim Morge
Nixon(MLS) wrote:
>
> I am no statistician but can 10 occurrences in 35 years be classed as
> statistically significant? I know this sounds like a rhetorical question
> but it is not. I am just wondering how many occurrences would be required
> for it to be useful if in fact the answer to my question is no.
>
> regards
>
> Philip
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Timothy Morge <tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: Dtrader <dan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Cc: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: 14 December 1998 17:51
> Subject: Re: copper
>
> |Dan:
> |
> |That is an astounding statistic--does it give you parameters
> |for how long it takes the rebound to unfold?
> |
> |Best,
> |
> |Tim Morge
> |
> |Dtrader wrote:
> |>
> |> (i saw this on the lim site today)
> |>
> |> Q: What happens when copper falls more than 2% on a Friday in December?
> |> A: It turns out that Copper rebounds an astounding 6% on average in 8 of
> 10
> |> past occurrences.
> |>
> |> Date Day 1
> |>
> |> 12/10/1965 Fri 5.461
> |> 12/02/1966 Fri 7.996
> |> 12/14/1973 Fri 6.919
> |> 12/18/1981 Fri 1.180
> |> 12/21/1984 Fri 3.005
> |> 12/04/1987 Fri 15.450
> |> 12/02/1988 Fri 8.455
> |> 12/01/1989 Fri -2.908
> |> 12/07/1990 Fri 0.953
> |> 12/15/1995 Fri -2.554
> |> 12/11/1998 Fri NaN
> |>
> |> Avg 4.396
> |> AvgPos 6.178
> |> AvgNeg -2.731
> |> PctPos 80.000
> |> PctNeg 20.000
> |> Maximum 15.450
> |> Minimum -2.908
> |> StdDev 5.626
> |> ZStat 0.781
> |> Variance 31.657
> |>
> |> 11 Occurrences
> |
|