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Thanks Tony,
I read the Hirsch almanac every now and again. There are hundreds, if
not thousands, of timing systems in use today.
Whatever you are comfortable with is what works.
Super
PS I tried reading some trading books like the Almanac to my dog, and
frankly she just doesn't have the attention span to really get through
them. Her timing system is really simple. When I put the Wall Street
Journal on the floor, she picks stocks. She doesn't bother with the
charts or anything. It's amazing to watch her work. She is a
discretionary trader rather than a system trader.
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Tony M <t4tonym@xxx> wrote:
>
> Dear Super,
>
> Thank you for your comments about testing and statistical
significance. Valid of course.
>
> I am not trying to make a case for lunar indicators as a "system"
any more than I would
> attempt to make a case for using a normal calendar as a stand alone
trading system.
> From work I did on various timing-based system components a few
years ago,
> it appeared that lunar calendar signals on their own work slightly
worse than a system
> based on the ordinary calendar. Neither of these are useful on their
own, but both may
> potentially provide some additional input if you already have a
working system.
>
> The purpose of my "support for the lunar indicator" email was not to
try to convince you,
> your dog, or anyone else to use lunar indicators as a substitute for
other methods. However,
> for anyone who might be interested, lunar indicators are no more
"loony" than calendars &
> seasonals are, and plenty of commodity traders make good use of
seasonals. There's a reasonable
> (but not statistically rigorous) treatment of timing effects in "The
Almanac Investor" by J.A.Hirsch & J.T.Brown .... just in case your dog
might want to learn about them (and if he/she doesn't, that's OK too).
>
> Regards,
> Tony Morland
>
> =====================
> ----- Original Message ----
> From: superfragalist <no_reply@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 10:03:12 PM
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Lunar Indicator Debate
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Tony, rather than putting forth your support for lunar
indicators by
>
> presenting subjective logic, it would be more interesting if you had
>
> tested it and could present test results showing the lunar indicators
>
> have a statistically significant performance improvement over other
>
> indicators.
>
>
>
> If you do your testing properly, then you have objective data and
>
> depending on the results the debate may be over.
>
>
>
> I see lots of rationally presented explanations of why certain
>
> indicaotrs work great, along with testimony to their effectiveness.
>
> However, when those presenting the case for indicator X are asked for
>
> objective test data, they don't have any, or it's based on a very
>
> selective period in the market.
>
>
>
> When the market is in an uptrend and 60% to 80% of all stocks are
>
> going up, nearly every indicator can pick winners 50% of the time. My
>
> dog picks good stocks when the market is in an uptrend. Over the last
>
> two months, my dog's portfolio is up 20%. I'm trying to get my dog a
>
> job with a hedge fund. Then I don't have to work anymore.
>
>
>
> Do some tests and post the results. That will support your case.
>
>
>
> Super
>
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, Tony M <t4tonym@ > wrote:
>
> >
>
> > Dear Metastock collegues,
>
> >
>
> > Maybe this is "old news" to some, but having seen & heard a lot of
>
> criticism of "lunar indicators" by those who do
>
> > not believe in astrology, I would like to share with you the
>
> following defence of the lunar indicator.
>
> >
>
> > In addition to seeing charts that show that sometimes it works, I
>
> always feel a lot more comfortable personally when using an
>
> > indicator if there is also some fundamental justification of why it
>
> should work, not just in terms of the computational algorithm,
>
> > but in terms of some underlying physical or economic principle. The
>
> justification for the lunar indicator is as follows:
>
> >
>
> > In many cases, money flows into and out of the market at or around
>
> certain specific dates. For example,
>
> > the "January effect", or the effect of tax selling before the end of
>
> the financial years (different in USA & Australia),
>
> > or the "window dressing" effect of investment institutions
>
> re-adjusting their portfolios at the end of each quarter,
>
> > or of new funds being allocated at the beginning of the month, etc.
>
> The dates of these occurrences are based on
>
> > the standard internationally accepted Gregorian calendar, or its
>
> near equivalent the Fiscal calendar,
>
> > in which week 1 of the year starts based on the week containing 4
>
> January.
>
> >
>
> > These are the calendars we all know, but Islamic countries and
>
> people use the Hijjri Calendar, either in addition to,
>
> > or in some cases instead of the international standard Gregorian
>
> calendar.
>
> > The Hijri calendar also has 12 months, but these months are either
>
> 29 or 30 days long,
>
> > so the total length of the Hijri year is 354 days, not 365 days. The
>
> Hijri or Islamic calendar is a LUNAR
>
> > calendar. The first day of each month of this calendar was
>
> traditionally based on the "hilal" or first sighting of the lunar
>
> > crescent or new moon. For widespread general use in modern times,
>
> the Tabular Islamic Calendar calculates the Hijri
>
> > date based on arithmetic rules. More info about this can be found on
>
> various web sites such as:
>
> > http://www.rabiah. com/convert/ introduction. html,
>
> http://www.phys. uu.nl/~vgent/ islam/islam_ tabcal.htm,
>
> > http://www.islamicf inder.org/ dateConversion. php or
>
> http://www.fourmila b.ch/documents/ calendar/
>
> >
>
> > Basically, any lunar indicator which is calculating the time of the
>
> new moon is in fact also calculating the start date of
>
> > each Islamic month (and the following full moon then corresponds to
>
> the middle of the corresponding month).
>
> > A number of Islamic countries (e.g. the Arabian Gulf states and
>
> others) have great financial strength and are actively involved in
>
> trading and investment.
>
> > For example Kuwait, well known as one of the world's major oil
>
> producing countries, now generates as much from its international
>
> > investments as it does from oil (ref.
>
> http://www.kuwaitna toconference. com/secondary. asp?Page= 3).
>
> > Investment timing decisions of financially important countries or
>
> individuals are likely to be based on the calendar,
>
> > but in some cases this may be the Hijri (lunar) calendar rather than
>
> the Gregorian calendar.
>
> >
>
> > Although the date (in the standard Gregorian calendar system) is not
>
> always a good predictor of price movements, it does at least
>
> > make sense to consider the possibility of timing effects based on
>
> money flows. When considering the international investment world,
>
> > these timing effects are likely to be not only according to the
>
> standard Gregorian calendar but also on the Hijri calendar, which is
>
> lunar.
>
> >
>
> > In conclusion, there is a very good fundamental reason to take
>
> seriously the concept of the lunar (or equivalent Hijri calendar)
>
> indicator.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > with best regards
>
> > from Tony M.
>
> > (still in Moscow)
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > ----- Original Message ----
>
> > From: pumrysh <no_reply@xxxxxxxxxx s.com>
>
> > To: equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com
>
> > Sent: Friday, May 25, 2007 8:29:34 PM
>
> > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Lunar Indicator
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > http://finance. groups.yahoo. com/group/ equismetastock/
>
> message/24199
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > --- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, Claud Baruch <claudb@> wrote:
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > In switching to a new computer, I lost the Lunar indicator I've
been
>
> >
>
> > > using for many years.
>
> >
>
> > > If anyone has the formula language for that indicator, it would be
>
> >
>
> > > greatly appreciated.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Claud
>
> >
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>
>
>
>
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