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Your post is interesting and it's a view point I hear often. I have
traded stocks using both fundemental analysis and technical analysis.
I find a combination is the best way to make money in the long run.
The approach a successful trader takes is to design his trading
business around his personality and emotinoal make-up as opposed to
designing it based on what's most profitable or the "best"
indicators. I see that post on this site all the time usually in form
of the lame question. "Let's do a poll and find out what everybody's
favorite indicators are". That's a ridiculous question. It's like
trying to decide what color to wear based on everybody else's
favorite color.
I have not met a single person who could not learn to improve the
return on their investments by using simple moving averages so they
know when to buy and when to sell. That's TA.
The thing that's really interesting is that there are very few
systems that beat moving averages. According to Robert Colby the
author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, the bible
of backtesting, a simple moving average system out performed by and
hold since 1928 by 51,712,052% Yeah, it's 52 million percent better
than buy and hold. That's 10s of billions more in profit with a
capital B. Of course that doesn't include taxes, commissions and rake
off by crooks. After that, you would only have $1.98 left, but hey,
it's money.
Too many people like to make things complex. Just look at Gann
theory. Gann based his work on Indian astrology and star alignment,
yet there are thousands of people who think trading with Gann gives
them an edge. Well, you could call Miss Cleo on the psychic hotline
and get better stock picks. Random Walk theory has taught us
that. "But Gann is so complicated, it must work." Yeah, it does, and
it slices, dices and cuts julian fries too.
You are right that a person doesn't have to know how to program a
thing in MS to make money. None of the sytems I use require one line
of code--not one. I've automated some processes for convience, but
after testing over 500 indicators and more than 200 experts nothing
has beat the simple stuff I use. I'm finishing up the testing of many
formulas from Colby's book and still nothing is performing better.
However, I disagree about reading the manual. You don't have to sit
down and read it front to back but you need to learn to use your
tools. A lot of people won't lift a finger to educate themselves.
They think it should all be handed to them on a platter. Ariel got it
right. If they won't read the manual they have no business trying to
trade for a living. The highest probability is they're going to lose
their capital and it's back to 7-11.
Some people are lucky in that trading success has nothing to do with
brains. That's been proven over and over, but it does have a lot to
do with laziness. Intellectually lazy people fail at this business. I
didn't say IQ was the issue. I said how much you are willing to use
the IQ you have is the issue. I have made suggestions to people
regarding what books to read. They read them, and then I have to
explain it to them three or four times, they read the book again, I
explain it again, and the next thing you know they're making money.
What a surprise! Am I upset I have to repeat my explanations more
than once. No, because they're doing their part.
Of course, I recommend the same material to other people who never
read it, continue to ask the same questions everyday and can't
understand why their capital account is shrinking. I've got a couple
of clues.
Ariel gave some of the best trading advice I've read on here. It's
too bad more people don't get it.
Now that being said, I started in TA 30 years ago writing computer
programs for finance professors who were looking for the grail. They
thought computers were going to do it for them. Then came complex
geometry, neural nets, chaos theory and fractals. Oh well, those
moving averages aren't looking for a place to hide. They know who
will still be around next year.
You are right also in that some people are trying to predict the
direction of the smoke. I use the smoke to keep me out of the fire. I
can read it well enough to do that. I can also tell where not to
stand to keep from choking.
That has made me more money than all of my finance professors put
together, and that's good enough for me.
If you can see what's right in front of you, you are one of the few.
I hope you are using that to your advantage. Some people are too lazy
to clean their glasses so they too can see.
Whatever works! I think that's what you said. Good post.
JO
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Martin Blain" <martin@xxxx>
wrote:
> If I can weigh in again here. Does all the quantifying of trading
stocks really pay off?
> I compare it to analyzing a plume of smoke and saying " well if
this happens then I will do this and if that doesn't work I will bail
out here. The hardest part of this ( and maybe the easiest to a
person smarter than me) is to explain why you cant quantify something
that is basically random. Now don't get me wrong I didn't say you
cant use TA. I just don't believe that you can use the systems in
MS. All this code and crap is just "something to aspire to" all the
while the information is right in front of you if you can see it. So
if you don't need the crap built in than don't waste your time
reading the manual!
> Regards Martin B
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Ariel Devulsky
> To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: November 22, 2003 3:10 PM
> Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Re: Group benefits and Whining
>
>
> Why not send the rules list or create rules and send to new
menbers?
>
>
>
> Read The Fuckinī Manual!
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: manohohman
> To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Saturday, November 22, 2003 3:40 PM
> Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: Group benefits and Whining
>
>
> Kevin, I agree completely with Martin's post. On this site and
the
> other Metastock site there are too many people who won't bother
to
> look in the manual or use the help screen and it's not because
they
> don't think to do it, they just don't want to "think" period.
>
> In addition, a lot of people think everything should be "free"
and if
> it's not, they'll try to find some place to steal it from.
These
> people want to be "traders". If you're willing to lose your
capital
> account but spend nothing on your education, you're not a
trader,
> you're a moron.
>
> I post on this and the other site constantly. I get a lot of
email
> wanting questions answered, or my entire trading system, or
help
> learning to trade, or emails that are filled with general
insults.
>
> They all want "free" help, but the help isn't free. It costs me
a lot
> of time and my time is valuable. Ninety percent of the people
who are
> asking me for stuff don't treat my time like it's valuable. In
fact,
> if I tell them in a polite way that I can't help them learn to
trade,
> or I'm not going to give away my systems unless they have
something
> to share, I usually get a terse response implying something
nasty
> about my character.
>
> Many of the emails I receive act as if they have a right to
answers
> because this is a MS support group. That's BS. Kevin, you are
right,
> no one has to answer any body's question. I've made the mistake
of
> answering some that I should have skipped, and I wound up
paying for
> it.
>
> I would appreciate it if you would do what I've been doing.
Start
> posting all kinds of references, indicator code, systems code,
> answering people's programming problems, etc. and then you'll
get to
> see what I've been seeing everyday, and you won't like it.
>
> Martin may not have been eloquent, but he was right. Newbie's
get
> pissed off when I, or someone else, tell them to read the
manual or
> use the help screen. They fire back a nasty email saying they
tried
> to read the manual but what they want to know is not in there.
Huffy,
> huffy, huffy. In addition to my career, I spent 30 years as a
college
> professor at 4 different universities. In the last ten years,
I've
> seen the same thing. Students don't want to bother reading
anything,
> or researching to find their own answers. I'm suppose to tell
them
> everything they need to know, and I should never ask them a
question
> on an exam I didn't tell them the answer too! Well here's an
answer.
> Get off your lazy ass, put your brain in gear, or learn to
say "Would
> you like that supersized," sir?
>
> I wonder how these people think I learned to program, or where
all
> the references I post come from. I guess I just woke up with
them on
> my pillow. I worked 17 hours yesterday. Six hours trading, and
eleven
> hours testing equations I found in reference books. In a few
days
> I'll get tons of requests wanting me to tell them what I found
so
> they don't have to spend 11 hours themselves. Some of what I
learned
> I might share, and some of it I won't. Whatever I choose to
share is
> a gift.
>
> Sure there are some great people on here, and on the other
board. I
> correspond with some of them. We exchange ideas, code and
systems. WE
> EXCHANGE!
>
> Everytime I've asked anyone on here to share their systems or
code,
> even if it isn't good, they decline. Surprise, surprise,
surprise.
> Their work is too important, or secret, to share.
>
> I've done a number of postings lately trying to elevate the
amount of
> discussion, references, sharing, and exchanging that goes on on
this
> board, and the other one, so the board is not merely a forum
for
> people who can't read.
>
> There has been a slight increase in the amount of sharing but
it's
> not nearly where it should be.
>
> I'll keep posting as long as I feel I have the time and energy,
but
> I'm also going to speak my mind about some of the garbage that
goes
> on. It mostly falls on deaf years I know, but that's okay
because
> I've given away enough that once in-a-while I get to whine.
>
> JO
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Kevin <kevin_barry@xxxx>
wrote:
> > Hello Martin,
> >
> > I think that your posting is a little unfair. I am not sure
if you
> are
> > referring to any group members in particular but I must say
that no
> > postings on this forum in recent times have evoked anything
close
> to a
> > similar reaction in me. Sure, there are often questions
posted that
> could
> > be answered by looking in the respective manual but, in my
> experience, not
> > everybody automatically thinks of doing that. Indeed, the
> apparently
> > obvious questions are sometimes quite thought-provoking and,
> personally
> > speaking, I have got answers here to questions that I would
never
> even have
> > thought of asking.
> >
> > There is no obligation to respond to any posting and the
nature of
> the post
> > is more often than not pretty obvious immediately. So, if it
is
> going to be
> > an irritation to you, why not just delete it immediately?
What
> impresses me
> > are the regular contributors who are quick to respond to
pleas for
> help,
> > however simple or stupid, and are extremely generous with
their
> knowledge
> > and experience. Without the questions, the rest of us might
never
> get to
> > hear these guys speak.
> >
> > I also get the impression that you are a little contemptuous
of
> people who
> > seem to be asking for something for nothing. Personally, I am
in
> complete
> > agreement with what I think that you are saying, i.e. if one
uses
> tools in
> > order to make money then those tools should be paid for.
However,
> you may
> > not realise that, in addition to people who trade
professionally or
> > part-time, there are many people who are attracted to the
idea of
> trading
> > and enjoy associating with the trading community, hobby-
traders if
> you
> > like, who do not actually trade. There is a chap who attends
my
> investment
> > club meetings who has an in-depth knowledge of the market and
is an
> expert
> > in several trading techniques. He occasionally lectures on
various
> subjects
> > and he is actually pretty good at it. He has never placed a
trade
> in his
> > life. Do I begrudge him collecting a bit of free software,
> downloading free
> > end-of-day prices and playing around with them in his spare
time?
> No. As
> > far as I can see, people like him are doing none of us any
harm
> whatsoever.
> >
> > A forum such as this needs lots of input at all levels in
order to
> stay
> > alive. I sincerely hope that nobody is ever reluctant to post
> because they
> > think that their contribution may not be worthy.
> >
> > Viva la difference.
> >
> > Regards,
> > Kevin
> >
> > At 12:29 22/11/2003 +0000, you wrote:
> > >
> > >Hi folks,
> > >
> > >in my opinion to share is just fair. Everyone that is a
member of
> > >this group should try to contribute to the benefits of the
whole
> > >group, not just ask (simple and stupid stuff) and take. This
doen't
> > >not mean that a newbie shouldn't post his or her questions.
But
> what
> > >about first trying to solve the problem by yourself and show
the
> > >group the results of this effort and then ask the question.
> > >
> > >But now FREE - for all of you not wanting to share and just
begging
> > >for 'free stuff':
> > >
> > >John Slauson from Adaptick is giving away for free
> > >
> > >Adaptick Trend Index
> > >Adaptick Pivot Volume indicator
> > >Adaptick Volume Acceleration Index
> > >17-page Adobe PDF Manual for reference and intepretation
> > >
> > >http://www.adaptick.com/3-pack/index.html
> > >
> > >pretty useful and - did I mention it - free (you dont have to
> > >contribute ;-)!
> > >
> > >Martin
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > >Metastockusers-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
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