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Vitaly, the
following comment from another post is not
accurate:>... Dr. D's latest calls ...>... He
has been long the past 3 months even though all his signals are>
short.Hmmm, ... what a character !!! (how
true but for different reasons)Cheers,
Vitaly***********************************************<FONT
color=#0000ff>VV has not been long over the past 3
months. VV went to CASH on 9/8 and started shorting on 9/15. VV
gave a 'best call' on 10/20 (Friday) to go long on 10/23 (Monday) for the folks
"riding the wave" (more aggressive investor). He told his prudent investors to
bargain hunt. Since 11/8 he has advised the 'prudent investor' to
essentially not buy.VV has not changed their Confirmed Up or Confirmed
Down methodology.Here is a quote from VV product support after being
questioned about their 'best call' on 10/23
(Monday).
"With the VVC price rising, Dr. DiLiddo has
made a 'best call' and indicated that he would be going into the market long
this morning. It is not a confirmed up, because of the MTI being below 1, and
other factors".
This was also posted on
10/23 from one user to another user:
"Your confusing "Best Calls" and C/up. Best
call is up to Dr. D. C/up is MTI above 1.00.Market Timing Indicator (MTI)-
Rules and Usage1) Combines the VVC-Price, VVC-RT, and the BSR into a single
indicator, signals the OVERALL direction and strength of the market2) Ranges
from 0.00 to 2.00, when above 1.00 market is Bullish, when below 1.00 market is
Bearish"
Here is another
quote from VV product support after being questioned about their 'best call' on
10/24 (Tuesday)."VectorVest's system of
confirmed ups and downs are designed to try and catch 70-80% of any major market
turn, and I would certainly recommend to any prudent or conservative investors
to follow this system. (Right now we recommend that you be in cash.) A
confirmation requires that both the MTI and Buy-Sell ratio be above 1.0, among
other factors. However, due to continuing pressure from our more aggressive
investors for us to come closer to the turning points, Dr. DiLiddo has developed
'best calls'. These are not strictly mechanical, and these are not confirmed in
any way. They are AGGRESSIVE and PRE-EMPTIVE calls to go long (in this case) or
short. If you consider yourself an aggressive investor, then you may want to
consider going into the market long right now. However, the closer you try to
get to the actual turning points in the market, the more chance there is for a
whipsaw. This is higher risk, but that is how you would categorize an aggressive
investor anyway. Dr. DiLiddo is simply making a suggestion. He never
said that you couldn't wait until we get a confirmed up. All the lights will be
green, and the MTI and BS ratio will be above 1.0."
I believe that there is a
place for VV in my arsenal of tricks. I consider it a super
spreadsheet manipulator of data and find it handy. However, I only
use it to 'arrange' data on my self-generated watchlists because I
won't use VV's black box stock fundamentals to pick stocks for further
TA.
<FONT color=#0000ff
face="Comic Sans MS">Cheers,
Gene
----- Original Message -----From: "neo"
<neo1@xxxxxxxxx>To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Saturday
December 23 2000 2:02 PMSubject: RE: VV timing>
Tom>> You really have to look at Dr. D's latest calls, the timing
system and the> comments on the VV board. He has been long the past 3
months even thoughall> his signals are short. He is now having people
sell on various MA'sinstead> of the sell signal. His system worked
well during the recent bull market> (what didn't) but is not working
now.>> I have had the program for 6 months. It took about 2 to
find out histiming> and strategies did not work. I have since spent a
great deal of time withMS> developing my own timing system and my own
strategies in VV which in back> testing are highly profitable. I am fine
tuning all this as well as myexits> and expect to go live after the
first. We will see what happens with real> money.>>>
-----Original Message-----> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Tom Sprunger> Sent:
Saturday, December 23, 2000 10:48 AM> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: VV timing>>> neo, I looked at all the market
(nasdaq is the proxy) turns in the last> three years that were greater
than 15%. VV hit them all, but many of them> weren't called until
it was obvious the trend had changed ( by the time VV> MKT Trend
indicator called a top the NASDAQ had already dropped an average> of 7%.
by the time it called a bottom the DAQ had already risen an average> of
21%). So, they can call them but they aren't necessarily "timely"
inthe> calls. In my opinion, the word "timely" is the key and
they don't makeany> claims (that I am aware of) as to how
timely the call is.>> For indivdual stocks I had worse results
with VV. By the time VV gave a> sell signal, the average stock had
already dropped an average of 22% andby> the time it gave a buy
signal it had already risen an average of 30%.This> doesn't mean you
can't make money with VV, just that there are ways tomake> more
money.>> So, that is my basis for saying there are many ways to do
better on timing> of individual stocks. I have assumed in my
comments that this being a> Metastock board, most readers were advanced
way beyond the VV timingsystem> for individual stocks. But as
you say, each person should develop his own> strategies to make money and
use whatever makes her/him comfortable.>> By the way, care to
share how VV has done for you this year? Are you inthe>
black? Your input on this might help me change mine and others opinion
on> VV.>> Tom> ----- Original Message ----->
From: "neo" <neo1@xxxxxxxxx>> To:
<metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> Sent: Friday, December 22, 2000 7:36
PM> Subject: RE: VV timing>>> > It depends on how
you studied their timing. Their published results donot> > agree
with the calls they made at the time. They fudge their published> >
timing calls in hindsight to made it look good. Many users have studied>
this> > including myself.> >> > Although their
timing system is poor it is the best system for picking> > stocks that
I have found but you have to develop your own strategies.> >>
>> > -----Original Message-----> > From:
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> >
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Tom Sprunger> >
Sent: Friday, December 22, 2000 4:09 PM> > To:
metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> > Subject: VV timing> >>
>> > I have studied VV timing claims and found they do do pretty
well ontiming> > the market. That isIF/WHEN they make a
call, its right. Sometimes its> > obvious though by the time
they make the call. However, they don't doso> > well on
timing individual stocks. Their stock timing system
isbasically> a> > 65 day (if I remember correctlyl) Moving
Average with some kind of magic> > accelerator. From my
analysis, it comes out to be about the same as a50> > day MA
crossover. You can do better with simple trend lines.> >>
> Tom> > ----- Original Message -----> > From: "David
DeFina" <ddefina@xxxxxxxxxxxx>> > To:
<metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > Sent: Friday, December 22, 2000
10:10 AM> > Subject: RE: To MetaStock Re: Portfolio Tester>
>> >> > > Neo:> > >> > > I
Have a copy of VectorVest, but haven't been able to find any
3rdparty> > > recommendations on its usefulness. I didn't
want to waste time on> > something> > > that doesn't have
value. They say they've called every major market> turn>
> > for so many years, but I couldn't tell if that was from back
testingor> > real> > > time? Have you had a
good experience with it, or know of a group of> happy> > >
users? Thanks, Dave D.> > >> > >> >
> ddefina@xxxxxxxxxxxx> > >> > > -----Original
Message-----> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> >
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On> > > Behalf Of neo>
> > Sent: Dec 22, 2000 5:45 AM> > > To:
metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > Subject: To MetaStock Re: Portfolio
Tester> > >> > > Take a look at VectorVest.>
> >> > > -----Original Message-----> > > From:
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> > >
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of David DeFina> >
> Sent: Thursday, December 21, 2000 6:05 PM> > > To:
metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > Subject: RE: Setting colour on a
multi-plot indicator> > > Importance: High> >
>> > >> > > I second the suggestion of being able
to system test multiple stocksat> > > once.> >
>> > > It would also be nice to run an "expert" report on
multiple stocks and> > have> > > a summary page print
with commentaries, etc.> > >
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