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Re: cycles



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Hi Dave,
I've never tried using the Metastock Fourier stuff on an
exploration, like you I've just done charting with it.  I'm
involved with refining my own systems, so I have not devoted
anytime to this.  

As for the fractal approach, Edgar Peters books are very good
at explaining the underlying ideas (but the books are not
for the mathematically faint-of-heart).  The *basic* idea is
that market prices are cyclical, but non-periodic.  A practical
example from nature of a non-periodic cycle is the sunspot
cycle... see for example
http://www.sunspotcycle.com
http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/predict.htm
or especially the plot at
http://www.sunspotcycle.com/images/zurich.gif

Anyway, Peters describes how to use "rescaled range" analysis
(also called "R/S" analyses) to determine cycle lengths for
the sunspot cycle, and then moves on to the stock market.

I can go into more detail, but the bottom line (as far as
I'm concerned) is that while Peter's books are extremely
fascinating, there is nothing in them that will help people
put together a practical trading system unless you are
extremely creative.  That being said, there is a website
devoted to Edgar Peters at
http://oara.org/mpc/fma

Some programs that implement some details of "R/S" analysis
have been put together by John Conover and are available at
http://www.johncon.com/ntropix

I've been using the programs at the above site for the last
couple of years, and while I have a much better understanding
of the theory of fractal "behavior" of markets, I have come
to believe that as a practical matter, T/A concepts such
as support and resistance, momentum, and price/volume
relationships are easier to understand and implement, and
can also produce profits.

Sorry for the long-winded reply.

Jeff


Dave Nadeau wrote:
>Jeff,
>
>I'm a big fan of Fourier Analysis, as I've used it in other
>work.  But I have been unsuccessful in getting it to work
>in anything other than a MetaStock chart.  In an
>exploration, any variations I've tried or number of bars
>loaded has produced a result of N/A.  I'm wondering if you
>have any ideas or have had any success working around this.
>
>Can you elaborate on the fractal approach?  It sounds like
>an interesting piece of work.  I will look up the book as
>well.
>