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<DIV> All,
<P class=MsoBodyText><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>I wanted to pick a small cap stock this week. To do that, I
ran a screen for small cap stocks that had a price between 3 and 21, a cap
between 200M and 1B, ROE greater than 8%, last quarter EPS gain greater than
13%, price/sales below industry average and have analyst’s buy
recommendations.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Then I sorted the
results by expected annual growth over the next five years.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I eyeballed the results and narrowed the
list to 26 candidates.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I finally
picked Argosy Gaming Co (AGY) from that list.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The analyst’s are predicting triple
digit earnings growth for it over the next couple of years, yet it has a current
PE of only 11.2 and a PEG ratio of only 0.4.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Also it’s in an industry group – casino
gambling - that has shown good momentum lately.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>AGY operates five riverboat casinos on
the Ohio, Mississippi, and Missouri rivers, at Alton, Illinois (serving St.
Louis); Riverside, Missouri (serving Kansas City); Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Sioux
City, Iowa; and Lawrenceburg, Indiana (near Cincinnati). Its riverboats provide
slots, video poker, and keno machines, as well as a variety of table games,
including blackjack, poker, craps, and roulette. Argosy's Lawrenceburg casino is
one of the nation's most successful riverboat casinos and accounts for more than
55% of the company's total sales.</P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>AGY at 16 ½ is a
momentum small cap play that is in a short, intermediate, and long term up
trend.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>It hit a new all time high
of 17.44 Thursday on a strong breakout of a 3-month CANSLIM type cup
formation.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>It pulled back a little
Friday after the strong Thursday move, but I expect it is just gathering itself
before it continues the strong up move.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>The top of the Short Term Up Trend Channel (STUTC) is at 17 and the
bottom is at 14 ¼.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I don’t usually
buy in at the top of the STUTC, but do make exceptions for breakouts like this
since they tend to push up through the top of their channels.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The Tema binary wave is in high positive
territory and the Tema QStick just turned positive this week.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>That all adds up to a good entry
point.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The fundamentals are OK with
the price/sales at 0.9, ROE at 91%, debt/equity higher than I like at 10.55, 5
yr average sales growth at 30%, and triple digit earnings growth expected for
the next couple of years.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I’ll take
a position at tomorrow’s open.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I
won’t set a target since this is a breakout to new highs, but will set my stop
just under the STUTC at 13 ¾.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> See chart at: <A
href="http://www.geocities.com/jimginva/";>http://www.geocities.com/jimginva/</A></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"></SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes">JimG </SPAN><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns
= "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"
/><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Dec 12 17:58:13 1999
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Date: Sun, 12 Dec 1999 18:20:25 EST
Subject: Re: Elwave vs Tradeadvisor
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Status:
Hi Jean-Michel,
WinWaves 32 has an e-wave analysis and projection that might be along the
lines of what you are looking for. They will let you demo it real-time for a
short period if you are interested. At least they did last December. It
calculates the probabilities of all the possible counts and projects future
price ranges. Running it for a while might help you with your choice--pro or
con. I, personally, have done a lot of e-wave analysis in the past and got no
where near as good at it as Rajesh's mentor has. I think it's as much an art
as a science.
Good luck,
Joe Nemecek
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