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LJ - (my short/intermediate term) system signals:
Index - Old (report per 990727) - Current (per 990818)
------- -------- -------------
10yr/yield ECB €uro Rate - (before 990507)Negative -unchanged, Negative
10yr/yield Japan ¥en Rate - 990617 -Negative -unchanged, Negative
10yr/yield US $ollar Rate - 990616 -Negative -unchanged, Negative
AEX - 990726 -Negative -990818 -Positive ***
AEX-Volume - 990802-Negative -unchanged, Negative
DAX 30 - 990614 -Positive -990723 -Negative
DJ EURO STOXX 50 - 990609 -Positive -990722 -Negative
Dow Indu - 990726 -Negative -990817 -Positive ***
Dow Transp - 990702 -Positive -990721 -Negative
Dow Utils - 990624 -Negative -unchanged, Negative
HangSeng - 990609 -Positive -990720 -Negative
Nikkei 225 - 990609 -Positive -990727 -Negative
SP500 - 990616 -Positive -990727 -Negative
***=adjusted (in todays report)
LJ (=current code-name)
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- The LJ-model-system is a short to intermediate term trend-direction system, that is
based on relational calculations of a future(indicative) pricing force build-up (a sort
momentum) to an already historicaly esthablished/set trend force.
- It produces the Positiveness/Negativeness "flow"-feeling (expressed by a + or - signal)
that is present in a market/index Price-indicator and as such it will not give trend's true
direction, only if its in a "good or bad mood".
- Since I haven't been able (as yet) to replace the "indicative"-part by a "precise"-part
the model will only slightly lag the actual signal (eg by a mere few (1-7) days).
- Therefore and naturaly, it cannot be used as a Trade-signal/system (as yet), eg as currently
it is still an indication (simply put an "On/Off"-switch) as to where the market/index stands
"calculated the mechanical way" (eg computed) and thus without any human interference
and/or interpretation.
- Historical testing (back as far as 1950 using a variaty of markets, indexes and stocks)
have prooven the amount of whipsaws to be reduced and be kept to a minimum eg by
added use of "build-in restrictions".
- Should this "indicative"-part be replaced by "a precise-part", than the system
would well qualify for it to be also a highly profitable Trade-system, eg signals
produced over time were well worth the time spend on "Testing the system in reality :
the day-to-day bourses-life". This was/is done so by also following it closely on a daily
day-to-day basis, over/in the last 2 years (eg since Winter 1996/97).
Regards,
Ton Maas
ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying and
note the new address change. Also for my Homepage
http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas
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