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<DIV><FONT size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Last week I talked about how I use
trend channels to set targets and stops to tell me when to exit a
position. This week I'm going to go back to the beginning to discuss how I
use trend channels to tell me when to enter a position. I'd appreciate any
comments pro or con on this methodology.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I've come to depend more and more on
trend channels as my primary technical analysis tool. The theory of trend
channel investing is simple. First you have to construct the trend channel.
After that is done the rest is easy. For up trend channels you open a long
position right after a stock bounces off the bottom of a channel and close the
position when it hits the top of a channel. Vice versa for down trend channels.
I treat horizontal channels like up trend channels for trading
purposes.<BR> Of course, I expand on this simple
methodology slightly <G>. First I construct short, intermediate, and long
term channels on all my charts. My definition of short, intermediate and
long term is flexible. In general short term is days to up to a few months,
intermediate term is a few months to over a year, and long term is years. I
like to open a position in the direction of the long term trend channel when an
intermediate term trend channel is broken and the stock reverses in the
direction of the long term trend. Since this is a fairly rare occurrence, my
secondary method which occurs much more frequently and is, therefore, the one I
use the most, is to enter a position when the short term trend channel is broken
and the stock reverses in direction of the intermediate term trend
channel. In both cases, the reversal is a better buy signal when it occurs
in conjunction with a bounce off the bottom of the longer term trend
channel. Once a stock has reversed its trend, I construct a new short term
trend channel in the direction of the longer term trend. I use this new
Short Term Trend Channel to set my targets and stops as I described last week if
I entered a position on the breakout of the old channel. If I missed
entering the position at the breakout, there are additional entry points every
time the stock bounces off the bottom of the new short term trend channel. <BR>
As you can see, using trend channels for
signaling when to enter a new position is straight forward and simple. The
trick is how to objectively and consistently construct the trend channels.
For short term up trend channels I use the Standard Deviation Channel built into
MetaStock. I start the channel immediately to the left of the lowest low in the
data being considered and end immediately to the right of the highest high in
the time frame. I set the deviation at 2 to determine the targets and at 1 to
determine the stops. I usually leave it at 1 for looking at the charts
since the stop is more important than the target I extend the channel to the
right. Anytime a new high is hit, I'll drag the right end of the channel
immediately to the right of that high. After a few months with at least two
good reactions, I switch to Trader Vic type trend lines to construct my short
term channels. I only use Trader Vic type trend lines for intermediate and long
term channels. I like the Trader Vic methodology much better than using a
standard deviation channel, but it gives many more false signals than standard
deviation channels do for very short term channels without any major reactions
in the data. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> For a Trader Vic up trend line, start
with the lowest low in the time frame being considered. Draw a line from that
low to a low before the highest high in the time frame such that the line
doesn't pass through any data. It's important that you don't draw the line
through any data or to a low that is past the highest high in the timeframe. A
down trend line is just the mirror image using the highs in the time frame. To
construct the up trend channel, extend the line to the right, then draw a
parallel line through the most extreme high in the time frame such that the line
doesn't intersect any other data points. This is easy with MetaStock. You can
hold the CTRL key down, then hold the left mouse key down once you are on the
original line and drag a parallel line to where ever you want it. You can do
the down trend channels in a similar manner. Horizontal channels are the
easiest. Just drop a horizontal line on the highest high and lowest low in the
time frame. My final touch is to change the line color and style: blue and
dashed for short term channels; red and dashed for intermediate term
channels; and magenta and dashed for long term channels.<BR>
That's all there is to it, what do you
think? Does it make sense?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jim <BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Dec 13 12:35:39 1998
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Message-ID: <001f01be26c2$f501cf40$0955fcd0@xxxx>
From: "Jim Greening" <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: good computers
Date: Sun, 13 Dec 1998 13:03:51 -0500
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Guy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I completely agree. I'm
shopping around the local clone dealers right now. The only thing you have
to watch out for is that you deal with one that gives you a choice of top of the
line mother boards and components.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx"; title=grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>Guy Tann</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, December 13, 1998 11:54 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: good computers</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>I've been building micro computers (notice the name) before
there was an<BR>Apple or an IBM PC. I think my first one was in the
early 70s.<BR><BR>Anyway, I've found that I can go to one of the local clone
manufacturers and<BR>buy a complete system, sometimes for less than the cost
of the various<BR>components. Currently, one of the local chains is
selling a 450MHz Pentium<BR>II system with 128Mb of RAM, 10+Gb HD, 4x DVD
drive, 400w speakers and sub,<BR>plus an 8Mb ATI graphics card, 56kb modem
v.90, etc., etc. and a 17" .26<BR>monitor (I think as I'm going from
memory) for around $1800. There's no way<BR>I'm going to take the time
to build one of these again. I bought a complete<BR>system, added
another 5.5Gb D: drive and a networking card (10/100 Mb<BR>Ethernet) and I'm
done. Oh yes, it also included Win 98 and a bunch of<BR>other
stuff.<BR><BR>Hardly worth trying to save $100. And that includes a 2
year, total<BR>warrantee.<BR><BR>Regards<BR><BR>Guy<BR><BR><BR>>
-----Original Message-----<BR>> From: <A
href="mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A><BR>>
[<A
href="mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>]On
Behalf Of Chuck Engstrom<BR>> Sent: Saturday, December 12, 1998 11:30
AM<BR>> To: <A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A><BR>>
Subject: Re: good computers<BR>><BR>><BR>> At 12:44 PM 12/12/98 GMT,
you wrote:<BR>> >On Fri, 11 Dec 1998 13:10:06 -0500, you wrote:<BR>>
><BR>> >>I'm in the market for a new computer and would
appreciate<BR>> >>comments good or bad about Micron, Compaq, Dell or
any others.<BR>> >>I want more power and it's time to put my pentium
133 machine<BR>> >>out to pasture.<BR>> ><BR>> >Upgraded
my system with an ASUS P2 motherboard & Pentium II, PC Power<BR>>
>& Cooling mini Tower & ATX power supply. Had to buy new
memory.<BR>> ><BR>> >I had to buy a new case and power supply due
to the ATX form factor.<BR>> >DELL, Compaq are too proprietary. Micron
and Gateway are upgradeable.<BR>> ><BR>> >Used the same video,
same HD, same monitor, same keyboard, same<BR>> >floppy, etc....<BR>>
><BR>> >See <A
href="http://www.TCCOMPUTERS.COM";>www.TCCOMPUTERS.COM</A> or <A
href="http://www.necx.com";>www.necx.com</A> for details. TCComputers
will<BR>> >put the system together for you, if you are not
handy.<BR>> ><BR>> >-= Chris ß =-<BR>>
>
/\ /\/<BR>> >
/\/ \ /\ /<BR>> >
/ \/ \/<BR>> >Using MetaStock 6.5 |
FastTrack | FastRUBE | FastTools | TC2000<BR>> ><BR>>
><BR>><BR>> I second the motion -- many of the "name" brand
computers have in them so<BR>> much stuff that is specially configured to
the extent that you<BR>> can't really<BR>> say that their Windows 95 (or
98) boxes subscribe to a presumably "open"<BR>> architecture.
Many of them are generally pretty good, of course, but<BR>> whenever you
have a problem you have to call Mr. Manufacturer and wait in<BR>> the phone
queue for who knows how long. If you are an experienced an<BR>>
knowledgeable user, think hard about "rolling your own." I did
my<BR>> own three<BR>> years ago and have had fewer problems than anyone
I know who's<BR>> bought brand<BR>> name.<BR>><BR>> Chuck
Engstrom<BR>><BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Dec 13 12:35:43 1998
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From: "Allan Havemose" <havemose@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Quicken 99?
Date: Sun, 13 Dec 1998 10:23:56 -0800
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I've used Quicken to track investments for several years now. Works fine for
Stocks. Q99 not understand futures. The only way is to use #shares as you
contract multiplier (assuming you trade single contracts). This causes wild
equity swings as Quicken uses the full contract value in calculating your
account balances, not the margin requirements.
Allan
-----
Allan Havemose, Ph.D.
havemose@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
havemose@xxxxxxxxx
-----Original Message-----
From: Lonnie Lepp <tllepp@xxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, December 12, 1998 6:23 PM
Subject: Quicken 99?
>I want to Use Quicken 99 to track Brokerage Statements and thus a VIP part
>of my money management design.
>Has anyone any experience using Quicken for as a part of their Futures &
>Options Speculation Business?
>
>
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