|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Jeff,
I "curve fitted" the election two months ago and predicted net gains in the
house for the Dems (I couda been famous). Only a few commodities are
based on opening prices (most use closing prices). All are optimized and
"curve fitted" (almost as dangerous as openly admitting your political
views). The renewed interest in the FO (Karnack's Forecaster), is forcing
me to write up an explanation for it and when finished I will pass it along
to anyone who might be interested (if anyone makes serious money with it,
I'd prefer Krugerrands for Christmas, instead of fruit baskets). I've
noticed in the past, a lot of people had trouble leaping from the system
tester to the implementation of interpreting the FO for signals. Other
sins have pointed to people initiating trades on the same day that they get
the signal. I now incorporate this "auto pilot" system with Goslin's IFT,
and a collage of indicators (the SMI, TSI & LRS being the lead dogs).
In the end, I stare at these three charts (attached): me and the disciples
actually make money doing this...but don't tell anyone...it's our little
secret.
Happy trades,
Steve Karnish
CCT
----------
> From: Jeff Ledermann <j.ledermann@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: Linear Regression system
> Date: Wednesday, November 04, 1998 4:54 AM
>
> > 2) Regarding system tests and optimization - I am getting the
impression
> > that it is common practice around these parts to optimize a system to
> > specific securities rather than trying to achieve an acceptable
> > optimization across many or all securities. In other words a system,
> > while sharing a common set of buy and sell rules, would be optimized
> > diferently for AOL, DELL and CSCO to name a few. Idealy I would like
to
> > optimize my systems across a class of securities. Of course to do that
> > you would have to be able to run system tests on multiple securites at
> > one time (a sore point that I'm sure has been discussed here a length)
-
> > EQUIS, are you listening? Optimizing to a specific security sounds
> > suspiciously (and dangerously) like curve fitting to me. Anyway, I
need
> > to get a question in here, so what is the scoop? How are people
> > optimizing their systems?
>
> Well Steve since you're the self proclaimed father of this illegitimate
> indicator
> which we dangerously curve fit to anything in sight, how about justifying
> your
> un-American ways. (And it's based on Open price as well, disgusting).
> Ozies of course are well known for our radical lefty views and really
don't
> mind
> living dangerously so long as it makes us money.
>
> Jeff.
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\karnack1.gif"
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\karnack2.gif"
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\karnack3.gif"
|