Hi,
Dont know whether i have written spam but ........
This is off topic but something i thought might be useful for the new year.Also these are some statistics i found browsing on the net.
a)December month has delivered an average gain of 1.6% on the SP 500 going back to 1950. Over the last 54 years, stocks have fallen in only 13 Decembers.
b)Years ending in five(1995,2005 etc) have No losing years in over 120 years of stock market history! The fifth year of the decade has always experienced the best gain of the decade... Since 1915, the average gain for years ending in five is 34.2 percent.
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As investors normally tend to get rid of their losers near year-end for tax purposes, these stocks are often hammered down to bargain levels. Over the years the Almanac has shown that New York Stock Exchange stocks selling at their lows on December 15 will usually outperform the market by February 15 in the following year. Preferred stocks, closed-end funds, splits and new issues are eliminated. When there are a huge number of new lows, stocks down the most are selected, even though there are usually good reasons why some stocks have been battered. |
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| BARGAIN STOCKS VS. THE MARKET** |
|
|
|
Bargain |
|
|
Short Span |
New Lows |
% Change |
% Change |
Stocks |
|
|
Late Dec - Jan/Feb |
Late Dec |
Jan/Feb |
NYSE Composite |
Advantage |
|
|
1974-75 |
112 |
|
48.9% |
22.1% |
26.8% |
|
|
1975-76 |
21 |
|
34.9% |
14.9% |
20.0% |
|
|
1976-77 |
2 |
|
1.3% |
-3.3% |
4.6% |
|
|
1977-78 |
15 |
|
2.8% |
-4.5% |
7.3% |
|
|
1978-79 |
43 |
|
11.8% |
3.9% |
7.9% |
|
|
1979-80 |
5 |
|
9.3% |
6.1% |
3.2% |
|
|
1980-81 |
14 |
|
7.1% |
-2.0% |
9.1% |
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1981-82 |
21 |
|
-2.6% |
-7.4% |
4.8% |
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1982-83 |
4 |
|
33.0% |
9.7% |
23.3% |
|
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1983-84 |
13 |
|
-3.2% |
-3.8% |
0.6% |
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1984-85 |
32 |
|
19.0% |
12.1% |
6.9% |
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1985-86 |
4 |
|
-22.5% |
3.9% |
-26.4% |
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1986-87 |
22 |
|
9.3% |
12.5% |
-3.2% |
|
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1987-88 |
23 |
|
13.2% |
6.8% |
6.4% |
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1988-89 |
14 |
|
30.0% |
6.4% |
23.6% |
|
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1989-90 |
25 |
|
-3.1% |
-4.8% |
1.7% |
|
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1990-91 |
18 |
|
18.8% |
12.6% |
6.2% |
|
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1991-92 |
23 |
|
51.1% |
7.7% |
43.4% |
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1992-93 |
9 |
|
8.7% |
0.6% |
8.1% |
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1993-94 |
10 |
|
-1.4% |
2.0% |
-3.4% |
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1994-95 |
25 |
|
14.6% |
5.7% |
8.9% |
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1995-96 |
5 |
|
-11.3% |
4.5% |
-15.8% |
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1996-97 |
16 |
|
13.9% |
11.2% |
2.7% |
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1997-98 |
29 |
|
9.9% |
5.7% |
4.2% |
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1998-99 |
40 |
|
-2.8% |
4.3% |
-7.1% |
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1999-00 |
26 |
* |
8.9% |
-5.4% |
14.3% |
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2000-01 |
51 |
¹ |
44.4% |
0.1% |
44.3% |
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2001-02 |
12 |
² |
31.4% |
-2.3% |
33.7% |
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2002-03 |
33 |
³ |
28.7% |
3.9% |
24.8% |
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29-Year Totals |
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404.1% |
123.2% |
280.9% |
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Average |
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13.9% |
4.2% |
9.7% |
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| * Chosen 12/29/99 ¹ Chosen 12/27/00 ² Chosen 12/26/01, incl NAS stocks, % chg thru 1/16/02 |
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³ Chosen 12/26/02, incl NAS & AMEX stocks, % chg thru 1/14/03 * Dec 15 - Feb 15 (1974-19991999)
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