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RE: [amibroker] Re: 2 cent worth on MoneyManagement



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Hi William and 
all,
 
Thanks for your reply. You 
say "See attached excel file on how to calc risk of ruin"... sorry but there was 
no attachment. Would you mind emailing it again, it might have been stripped off 
by Yahoo, my email is psytek@xxxxx. 
Many thanks! 
 
The sample result attached to 
my earlier email was an Overall Performance Report for 100 stocks 
(N100). <FONT 
size=2>This brings up the point of whether the 
Expectancy test is valid on groups of stocks. Any comments on that? Perhapsthis 
is why my results were way off?
<FONT 
size=2> 
I do not understand when you 
say "You are also right the example you have with payoff ratio of less than 
1, the problem might just be at the stop loss". <FONT 
size=2>I don't use stops in system 
design... I believe stops and position-sizing distorts the true natureof a 
system and handicaps equity analysis and development. Can you explain your 
statement?
 
A point that worries me is that 
to apply strict money management techniques one must have big sums to trade. I 
would guess that if the minimum requirement is $200K than many subscribers 
on this list don't need to worry about MM :-) Any comments?
 
So, this brings me back to the 
question of which comes first: developing a good trading system or a MM 
system. I think the trading system comes first, MM will only be as good as the 
system we trade. Right?
 
However, I am intrigued with 
the screening possibility offered by the Expectancy factor. This can be 
implemented right in the trading system. Also, 2D/3D Expectancy charts 
for optimizations are very interesting. But I would like to find a 
better formula, the one I am using looks too much like my Equity curves (if 
normalized); not sensitive enough. There must be many variations of it out 
there... I'll keep looking.
 
Best 
regards,
Herman.
 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
-----Original 
Message-----From: William Wong 
[mailto:williamwongab@xxxx]Sent: 21 October, 2002 3:42 
AMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: [amibroker] 
Re: 2 cent worth on MoneyManagement
Hi Herman, 
Essentially you are right.  It is a mathetical expecation.  You 
are also right the example you have with payoff ratio of less than 1, the 
problem might just be at the stop loss.  Such low payoff ratio meansthe 
risk of ruin could be quite high.  See attached excel file on how tocalc 
risk of ruin.  I would focus on getting a system with > 1 pay off 
ratio and > 50% times profitable.  
Btw, the Risk Adj Ann Return% in AB's report is not how one would interpret 
it.  This return is "adjusted" by the % of exposure you have in the 
market.  I.e., if your system seldom takes position in the market, this 
return will be inflated, it assumes when your money is not working for you in 
the market, it is working some where else which generates the same 
return.  This may not be the case. 
The unadjusted return is more realistic as usually our money is idle in a 
trading account, a more conservative number.  Anyway, your exposure is 
close to 100%, hence this return comes close to the unadjusted one. 
One more thing, focus on the drawdown, your trade and system drawdown are 
very high, close to 90%.  This means you need to be very strong in 
conviction to carry through using this system as you will be beaten almost 
flat before it makes money for you.  Most professional restricts a 
drawdown of a single trade down to 2% as a rule of thumb, this got to do with 
the money mgmt.  For example, if you have $10,000, you have identifya 
trade to buy SUNW at $2.50 with a stop at $2.00.  The risk (include 
commission $0.02 per share per round trip) is $0.52.  Using 2%, I would 
only risk $200, i.e., $200 / $0.52 = 384 shares in this trade. 
Something I learnt through paying tuition fees to the market :-) 
William 
 Herman van den Bergen <psytek@xxxx> wrote: 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>

<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>Thank you William,
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002> 
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>Can you help me link this to a typical AB 
BackTest report (attached)?
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002> 
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>avg win$  = Average winning trade: 
15.71
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>avg loss$ = Average losing trade: 
-17.04
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>%Win      = Percent 
profitable: 61.8
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002> 
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>Plugging these numbers in your formula I 
get:
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002> 
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>Expectation = ( 1 + 15.71 / 17.04 ) * .618- 1 = 
0.172
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002> 
I 
assume the minus sign for Average losing trade is dropped<FONT 
color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>? This was a 
backtest on the N100 so I am not quite sure how to interpret this if we 
apply the formula to groups... ideas? <FONT color=#0000ff 
face=Arial size=2>Taking the top ten stocks 
from this test i get 
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002> 
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002><SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>Expectation = ( 1 + 35.19 / 42.94 ) * 
.706 - 1 = 0.284 still not very good...
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002> 
It 
looks like my decision to work first on trading systems before tacklingMM 
was correct: i am a long way off from 0.7 !
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002> 
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>Still, I am not quite sure what to think of this... 
the first test gave me 161%/ann average for 100 stocks, the second 
test gave me 660%/ann average for 10 stocks (of course assuming I 
could screen the best stocks) over about 5000 trades. To get 0.7 I'll have 
to be making thousands of percent per year... where did i go wrong? I guess 
the problem is that the losers are too big, adding stops might improve the 
Expectation rating but would reduce profits... hmmm sounds familiar :-) 

<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002> 
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>So, we need to Optimize for Expectation... 
now, wouldn't that be fun?! I might just work on that this weekend:-) 
AmiBroker can do anything, right? I love a good afl 
challenge.
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002> 
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>Intuition tells me the formula ought tohave a 
factor for frequency/distribution of trading/profits and the testing period 
under consideration. This formula would give good results if I had onlytwo 
very profitable trades and two small losers - not right... 
WinTradeDuration/LosingTradeDuration probably ought to be in there 
too... How can we factor those in?
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial 
size=2> 
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>Many thanks triggering those sleepy 
neurons,
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>Herman
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002> 
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002>PS. Sorry for not letting this thread 
end...
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002> 
<SPAN 
class=060393621-18102002> 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
<FONT face=Tahoma 
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: William Wong 
[mailto:williamwongab@xxxx]Sent: 18 October, 2002 3:31 
AMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: 
[amibroker] Re: 2 cent worth on MoneyManagement
My 2 cents worth on money management. 
A system performance is governed by a combination of %winning trades 
and pay off ratio (avg win$ / avg loss$).  If an expectation of a 
system is negative, no matter how good the money management, it 
only slows down an eventual death. 
Expectation = (1 + pay off ratio) * %win - 1 
e.g.  If a system gives pay off ratio of 2:1 but only profitable 
30% of the time, 
Exp = (1 + 2) * 0.3 - 1 = -0.1, not worth using 
But if the accuracy is improved to 40%, 
Exp = (1 + 2) * 0.4 - 1 = 0.2, worth using 
The higher the expectation, the better the system.  Rule of thumb 
is to improve to at least 0.7. 
Now when a system has a positive expectation, then money management 
comes into play.  MM is about reducing the Risk of Ruin, the chance 
of lossing x% of your portfolio before you decide to quit.  It about 
staying in the game.  It is the different between punting and making 
a living on trading.  A mediocre system (positive expectation) with a 
sound money mgmt is good enough to trade for a living.


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Overall performance summary

 

Total net profit:
16397.46
 
Total commissions paid:
0.00

Return on account:
167.32 % 
 
Open position gain/loss
-525.51

Buy&Hold profit:
-3024.58
 
Bars (avg. days) in test:
25480 (375)

Buy&Hold % return:
-30.86%
 
System to Buy&Hold index:
642.14%

 

Annual system % return: 
160.40%
 
Annual B&H % return:
-30.18%

 

System drawdown:
-82.66
 
B&H drawdown:
-92.85

Max. system drawdown:
-1191.56
 
B&H max. drawdown:
-260.31

Max. system % drawdown:
-93.74%
 
B&H max. % drawdown:
-95.74%

Max. trade drawdown:
-581.29
 
 
 

Max. trade % drawdown:
-88.23%
 
 
 

Trade drawdown:
-444.52
 
 
 

 

Total number of trades:
5295
 
Percent profitable:
61.8%

Number winning trades:
3272
 
Number losing trades:
2023

Profit of winners:
51391.78
 
Loss of losers:
-34468.81

Total # of bars in winners:
16905
 
Total # of bars in losers:
13187

Commissions paid in winners:
0.00
 
Commissions paid in losers:
0.00

 

Largest winning trade:
258.56
 
Largest losing trade:
-357.47

# of bars in largest winner:
4
 
# bars in largest loser:
7

Commission paid in largest winner:
0.00
 
Commission paid in largest loser:
0.00

 

Average winning trade:
15.71
 
Average losing trade:
-17.04

Avg. # of bars in winners:
5.2
 
Avg. # bars in losers:
6.5

Avg. commission paid in winner:
0.00
 
Avg. commission paid in loser:
0.00

Max consec. winners:
15
 
Max consec. losers:
8

 

Bars out of the market:
194
 
Interest earned:
0.00

 

Exposure:
99.2%
 
Risk adjusted ann. return:
161.63%

Ratio avg win/avg loss:
0.92
 
Avg. trade (win & loss):
3.20

Profit factor:
1.49
 






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