expectation

["Stephane Carrasset" <nenapacwanfr@xxxx>]

Hi,

a lot of gurus write about expectation, but when I develop the 
formula, there is no difference with average trade.
stephane


Expectation = PW * AW – PL * AL
Where:
PW is the probability of a winning trade
AW is the average win
PL is the probability of a losing trade
AL is the average loss


PW=Nb Winning trade/Total Trade
AW=$ Winning trade/Nb Winning trade
PL= Nb Losing trade/ Total Trade
AL=$ Losing trade/Nb Losing trade


PW * AW= $ Winning trade/Total Trade
PL * AL==$ Losing trade/Total trade

Expectation = PW * AW - PL * AL=($ Winning trade - $ Losing 
trade)/Total trade
it is the average trade