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RE: Random Walk alive and well.


  • To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
  • Subject: RE: Random Walk alive and well.
  • From: Christian <c.holzner@xxxxxx>
  • Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2002 02:34:31 -0800
  • In-reply-to: <200202101725.JAA01897@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>

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Pierre,

Is there a paper of your conference presentation somewhere available?

Christian


> FYI,I gave a conference last year in Paris where I presented, live, the
> following experience:
> 
> True random data have been bought and were used to generate random bar charts.
> We used the Safir-X software to find a trading system that worked with these
> data.
> Quite easy.
> 
> The system was then tested over out of sample  random data.
> It still worked, but very badly.
> 
> Then the same system was tested on intraday futures contract ( sp, dax, ftse,
> cac, nasdaq 100).
> All of the results were very good.
> 
> The conclusion were:
> 1- The market are not random ( or we would have got the same poor results than
> with unseen random data)
> 2- It is possible to build winning trading systems even by learning from random
> data.
> 3- Safir-X was at least able to do that.
> 
> Sincerely,
> 
> Pierre Orphelin