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> 1. is it possible that the nature of the bond market will ever change ?
every market changes, but I mostly work with percentages. I find a
percentage in place and time, then another and another. then I compare what
the error correlation is between all the readings, that gives me confidence
that the percentage I use is somewhere in the mean of all the sampled
readings. unlike optimization which picks the best case, I settle for a
middle of the road approach. I feel like then I captured the essence of
that market and yet give it room to change some.
> 2. how will you recognize it -- what would tell you that it has changed ?
Rick Saidenburg said it best, when a system exceeds it max historical
drawdown by two times then I would consider that a failure (maybe). then I
would continue to trade it until I gained half of that back. I know it may
not come back, but if you have done the work correct it most likely will
come back.
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