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The group was so helpful I thought I'd post something about why I'm so
interested in this, in case anyone else is interested. It's best
explained in a post I made on Elite Trader:
I recently read an article by Brett N. Steenbarger at
tradingeducation.com about "horizontal analysis", here in part:
Begin Article
"Most traders, myself included, tend to view the market vertically.
That is, if we build a spreadsheet, we array the recent data on top of
the prior data and create all sorts of statistical manipulations that
aggregate the data from bottom up. Vertical market analysis is
problematic, however, in that it runs into the aforementioned
challenge of stationarity.
When I created the tables above, I was looking at the market
horizontally. Instead of putting each day's data on top of the
previous values, I placed it to the right. That means that the rows
of the spreadsheets represent common time periods—in the case of the
data above where we looked at ranges, these were thirty-minute
periods. Viewing data horizontally tells us some interesting things,
in part because there is greater likelihood of stationarity across
sixty common time periods than across sixty adjacent, different periods.
Let me give a concrete example. Suppose during a given five minute
period of the day we see 800 ES trades being placed. Is that a
meaningful volume or not? If the 800 trades occur during the opening
half hour of trading, the volume is not significant. On the other
hand, 800 trades in a five minute period that occurs between 11:30 –
12:00 ET would be close to the top 5% of all values for that period.
The average volume in early morning is actually a mini buying or
selling climax around noon. And, as we shall see later, this is an
important piece of information.
Here's another example: Suppose we break out of a hour-long range and
make a new high or new low on the ES. What are the odds of the move
continuing in its breakout direction? If you aggregate all similar
breakout moves through the day, you'll get a very fuzzy reading.
About half the breakout moves will continue; half will reverse. But
if you analyze the market horizontally, you'll find that breakouts
behave differently early in the trading day than later on. There are
many more false breakouts as you move on through the day. Why? On
average, the reduced volume/volatility of those later hours makes it
more difficult to power new market trends.
But wait! If the odds and extent of breakout moves is different from
one hour to the next, then that means that chart patterns will vary
from one period to the next. That also means that oscillator
readings—what constitutes overbought and oversold—will similarly vary.
Here's something to try: If you want to analyze the market by chart
patterns or indicator readings, switch your analysis from vertical to
horizontal. Look only at similar time segments from a stationary
lookback period in the market and see what the market has done when
the patterns or readings have been similar to those observed
currently. If you see a breakout from a two-hour range that occurs at
9:45 ET, look at all similar breakouts that have occurred in the first
half-hour of trading. The chances are good that your findings will be
less fuzzy—and may even reveal a tradable edge."
End Article.
So I was thinking, instead of Excel, using MetaStock charts to look at
intraday periods during the FX sessions in this horizontal fashion. I
now have an indicator which easily allows me to color code each FX mkt
session, US/European/Asian, and the overlaps, and the plan is to stack
the same time period charts on top of each other, using both my
monitors so I could look at, say, 10 charts at a time of the US
session from 8:00am to 12:00pm (est, the US opening and the overlap
w/the Euro session) and compare and contrast them this way. As I
recall, when I was studying stocks, one of the most important things
intraday traders consider is the time period of the daily session:
There's generally higher volatilty in the opening hours and morning,
mid-day much less-so, then the end of the day can be very volatile,
all this is common knowledge. Surely these same kind of behaviors
would be present due to volume/volatility in FX as in other markets.
I know this is going to be blindingly obvious to many, if not most,
this isn't meant to be a relevation, sometimes it just takes me a
while to catch up. It's just occurred to me that such a study of the
charts - of consolidations, breakouts, retracements - graphically,
horizontally, could reveal a great deal of information about how these
mkts behave intraday, day-to-day. Most interesting.
Comments (other than, "No shite, Einstein!") appreciated,
Harold
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