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Hi :
In my opinion the stock market is not a pure play zero sum game . It is a
negative sum game in the sens that commission , slippage etc. makes that some
money "evaporates" and not all money lost is made by the winners. However the
stock market is mabe the only market where the expectancy may be positive
because there is wealth created during a bear market. Conversely in a bear
market , wealth is distroyed and some players are losing money (the buy and
holdres) that nobody makes. This is not the case in the currency market for
instance where if the dollar goes up, the swissie goes down and so on.
My personal conclusion is that the stock market is a VERY negative expectancy
game because to the exception of some rare access of fever the stock market
usually goes down or is flat. This is not what they say at CNBC but if you
take an infaltion adjuested chart of the DJ you will find that it took till
1996 to recover from the 1929 crash.
Good luck...
Jean Jacques
www.alterama.com
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